tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13519202.post2945351234153109745..comments2023-10-17T06:50:26.427-07:00Comments on Poker with WillWonka: Setless and Facing pressure from a Rock with one pairWillWonkahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06154883018461460762noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13519202.post-2538869831491585212009-09-02T04:23:30.672-07:002009-09-02T04:23:30.672-07:00I folded.
I guess check calling the turn is an op...I folded.<br /><br />I guess check calling the turn is an option.WillWonkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06154883018461460762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13519202.post-50999619881717030652009-09-01T19:52:06.615-07:002009-09-01T19:52:06.615-07:00Vs. a 14/6 player (who somehow is also a strong wi...Vs. a 14/6 player (who somehow is also a strong winning player?) this is an easy fold. The turn AF stat means nothing. First, you have only 405 hands, so you probably have something like 11 turn actions, so he's bet or raised 9 times, called 2 times. Aggregating that statistic over a bunch of different boards, and using the data from a small sample to apply to this situation is folly. If you want to use any AF, I guess use the 1.8 (unless that's 3b%?), but still I'd just as soon ignore it entirely. I doubt he has A2s or 53s very often since he called an EP raise, but he can have AQ QQ and 44 plenty. You can maybe pray to chop with AK, although I wouldn't expect him to play AK this way. The only conceivable hands that you beat are KhJh and JhTh...that's two hands. And you're not miles ahead of them anyway. Whereas vs AQ QQ and 44 you're drawing dead or very close to it. <br /><br />I don't think I'd even bet the turn, precisely because you can't stand a raise and you're not going to get called by worse very often. You also need to protect your turn checks with something, since in general when you're checking this turn you're just totally giving up. So I think I'd check/probably call the turn, and then check/fold the river, especially if it's a heart.<br /><br />-bruechipsspritpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07840930703139677178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13519202.post-13507517852369599942009-09-01T08:45:50.338-07:002009-09-01T08:45:50.338-07:00Villain's range will be weighted towards 2-pai...Villain's range will be weighted towards 2-pair and better hands - AQ/A4/A2/44/35h. <br /><br />If villain is strong and aggressive, we can also add in some semi-bluff combo-draw hands like KJh/KTh/JTh/56h, and also some air.<br /><br />But in general, you're in bad shape b/c he will almost never be raising for value with something that you can beat. I would fold.<br /><br />OOP here against an aggressive opponent, I prefer a bet-check-bet line to avoid spots like this one.noldmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06632933577001519894noreply@blogger.com