Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Broken Record

OK, this may sound like a broken record; but...

I started off in the hole again and had to fight my way back.... scratch.. I started off in the hole again and had to fight my way back.... scratch.. I started off in the hole again and had to fight my way back.... scratch.. I started off in the hole again and had to fight my way back.... scratch..

I don't know what it is; but I can NOT get off to a good start. OK, I know a little about what it is. Last night, I flopped 2 pair twice, a set once, and pocket aces all of which lost. I also turned a straight to lose to a rivered flush so yep, I know how it happened. The next question what do I do about it. The answer. Keep doing what I am doing. Hopefully, winning 40% at showdown is not a long term trend. It does usually make itself to 50% by the end of the session.

I had AA last night an incredible 7 times (plus 2 more in tourney) out of about 460 hands. Unfortunately, I did not win at the historical 80% clip. I won 60% of the hands which of course is not bad; but you would think that if you had AA that many times that it would be your overwhelmingly biggest hand of the night. Nope, finished around 7th so at least it was positive.

I'm still seeking some leak finding thing that can capsulize my play. Winning $ at showdown is misleading. Obviously, VPIP, PFR and aggression Factor are just baselines. I'm going to dig deeper here and see what I find.

See below charts for the last few days sessions.

I was able to win a small rebuy tourney for $260 last night. There was one hand that came about midway through the first and second break. We are past the rebuy/addon level. I am in the BB with AKs. EP raises it up about the standard 3x. 2 callers in front of me so I just called (thoughts?). Flop come something like 68J with 2 hearts (my suit). EP guy now goes all in and the one other guy calls so it is a little over $1000 to call with nearly $6,000 in the pot. What do you do? I was the chip leader at the time..

Anyway... I called... EP turned over QQ and the other guy had a Jack I think. Anyway, I did not improve... but I think I'm OK with the decision. Thoughts?


Vicious rumors about Neteller (courtesy of NetFilter) calling it quits for US players and confirmed rumors about Firepay. This is not looking good.


I'm again shooting for the Iron Man status on Full Tilt. I've made the needed 200 pts everyday this month except for one. We'll see if I can make it. 30K freerolls are always nice. You need 200 pts 25 days out of the month.


Michael said...

Good call with the AKs in the tourney, IMO. You were getting around 6:1 when you are only 2:1 to hit. That doesn't even include the possibility that an Ace or King is an out.

I'm guessing your SH ring game troubles are just a bad run. As long as you aren't paying off at showdown when it's obvious you are beaten (and the pot is relatively small), you are fine.

Anonymous said...

On the AKs hand as well. The preflop call seems fine -- perhaps a bit conservative but no particular reason to go to war at this point.

The call postflop seems absolutely clear cut. Poker Stove says that against QQ (no heart) and AJ(no heart) you actually have 46% equity in the pot at this point (you're favoured over the QQ hand). Even if we put one heart queen in, and change the jack hand to include a flush draw (obviously not AJ) it only drops you off to 44% or so.

Jorgen said...

Did you play one of the IronMan tournaments held last Saturday? I only qualified for the 15k and only about 70% of the field showed up. A few of the no shows even snuck into the money.

As an aside, I'm surprised I never ran into you at the 3/6 SH tables. I was playing a few hours a day and just getting killed so I've had to suck it up and move down to 2/4. It's pretty depressing moving down as every time I sat down I had notes on, at least, two other people saying how horrible they were. Hopefully you end up with some of my former cash.

Ameretto said...

How's the full tilt games these days, FT used to have the name as one of the hardest sites to play at. Has this changed with all of the new legislations that have come in?

UL with your AKs call by the way

KenP said...

The others all make good point and are right on the odd and opportunity.

One can make a case for the other option. Blinds are not mention. How many left, etc. A little later with that 'good' stack, I'd find it easier.

With an hour or so left to the money, survival remains at a strong point.

Stack is your gun. Cripple it and you can go from Howitzer to slingshot. If you say, "Given the circumstances, I am not going to play big bet poker with a drawing hand." then nobody should kick sand in your face.

But, I'm pretty sure I'd have also called the 6:1 here. Hell, I have done dumber things with less stack. :)

pokerpeaker said...

Good game last night. I was sorry to knock you out, as I was hoping to play with you more.

The cash games are just variance - I've lost three medium-sized to fairly large pots in a row when I've held A,J and two Jacks on the board...very strange.

slb159 said...

Good to play against you last night.
As far as you're AKh play, the call is fine pf and you have what, two overs and 9 outs to the flush once the flop comes. All depends on how much you were the chip leader by and how you thought the others were playing.
Even though I have a minor in statistics, I'm not a big fan of numbers at the table. Like Mike A. said (but I'm referring to post flop) no reason to go to war if you are dominating the table and are risking losing a large portion of chips, when you can save a few for a better spot and see someone else go out in the process. But I play wuss poker...so just my opinion.

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