Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Sweating and River Bet Question

Do you ever have something wrong with your car and then bring it to the auto mechanic and tell that it really is making this noise or something else similar and then when you bring it to him it doesn't make the noise? Or even in my line of work in the support business, people will complaining about something and when I go to check it out, they can't reproduce the problem. I say all of that to say this. I had a sweat session with a guy from Stoxpoker. His name is Matt Pethybridge. He did a leak finding video on Stox. While it was only an intro video, I still found a few nuggets in there. I then contacted him to take a look at my stats and he pointed out a few leaks that I continue to work on.

Last night, he sweated me playing 6 tables as I have had another tough week losing about 5 1/2 buyins at 50NL. So what happens, I win a couple of buyins. Most of it was just little things. Another part of it was that not many big hands came up.

I will post one hand that came up that we differed on what I should do (although it was close either way).

The villain in this hand is a 29/15/.8 player over just 38 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/74781
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $43.30
BTN: $103.50
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $132.75
UTG: $57.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kd Ks
2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 8c Js 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $8.25, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $8.25

River: ($28.00) Th (2 players)

$28 in the pot and I have $36. Straight draw got there and JT got there. My thoughts were to bet and bet around $20. He was more in favor of check calling with the reasoning being that if I bet and he pushed, I would have to call and most likely be behind. What are your thoughts?

This hand is interesting because it goes to one leak of not getting max value on a hand; but on the other hand, not spewing dollars when you are behind by calling bets on river.

Have a nice day!!!


spritpot said...

ya the ten is a pretty gross card. rarely getting called by worst other than QJ, KJ, AJ - and he MIGHT even fold these hands.

if you bet and he shoves you are 100% PWND but you almost have to call given your remaining stack.


pokerpeaker said...

Check call. I hate showing weakness in this case but it's rare when .25/.50 know enough to take advantage of that weakness and represent something. Either they have it or they don't and will bet accordingly. Plus you only have a pair. I don't know if max value is a concern when you only have a pair. The pot already is pretty nice for that.

Phil Reynolds said...

I bet it all the way. I don't worry about the straight at all because I don't think he calls both those bets with a gut shot. So you have to decide if he has JT or he hit a set and is slow playing it. I put him on KJ or AJ. I would bet the pot. If he has AJ he could still raise you after that so you only have $8 to call and get max money in the hand.

spritpot said...

I'd value bet this. Since he limp/called the button pre-frop, I'm putting him on being a donkey.

Plus it's a short-handed game and donkeys hate folding, so I could see you getting looked up by T9,A8,QJ,QT etc. Also I don't see many hands he'd turn into a bluff on the river if you check.

If you check and he has you beat, he'll bet at least 20, and you'll call. If you check and you beat him, he will almost definitely check behind (unless you can point out some hand to me that will be bluffing the river).

On the other hand, if you bet 20 and call a shove, you'll lose 36 when he has you beat (unless he decides to just call with AA or some crap two pair), but you'll gain 20 at least some of the time that you have him beat. Since I think you get called and are good a pretty good % of the time (more than twice as often as you get shoved on by a better hand), to me it's definitely a value bet. I might bet a touch less like 18 to try and get more calls from his weaker hands. Also if you bet 16-18 I think you could probably fold to a shove.


WillWonka said...

FYI.. I did check and he checked behind with QJ.

I still think it is close

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

What straight are you talking about? There really isn't a hand that makes sense for a straight here. Unless you think someone calls two streets with Q9? Or 79 with double gutted on turn? That's really not something that should even come into your mind, IMO.

Bet more on the turn and def bet the river. If he calls the flop and turn, to me, it would be pretty clear that he has a J. Of course, JT gets there but I think you can get called by worse hands than that too.

Who links to my website?