Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Extrapolation

So here we are... It's a new month.. time to look forward to the present and forget the past.

So, it was Tuesday night and since Tuesday is one of the nights that I "can" play poker according to my aggreement with Mrs Wonka, I took a seat at the 15/30 tables. Nothing too exciting to report there and after a few hours, I left with a $306 profit. Oh, by the way... another over 40%player sitting next to me made over $1000 in those two hours... I have to keep reminding myself that this is not a race... you can have more than one winner.. You just can't let yourself get caught up in that. In fact 5 out of the top 7 money winners for the night (as I was data mining 8 other tables) had a VPIP of over 35. At least the top guy was a good player and had a respectable flop %.

So it is coming up on 10:30 Central time and I know that my Oklahoma buddy is going to play in one of the Party Poker Shootouts. I've always wanted to try this out; but was usually done playing poker by 10:30; but not tonight... I'm in... And low and behold what do I see early on... yep, Ace Ace. Short story... I lost to QQ... ouch... I was down; but not out leaving me with about 260... Well, that whittled down to 190.... It was still early, so the blinds were still small enough where I could still do something with it... but at the same time.. first good cards, I have to go with it... AQ in SB.. cool... a limper and then the button raises 160... I'm in... all-in... everybody else out.. luckily he has KJ... oh wait.. 2 pair on flop.... T on river... sucked out on him on the river for a straight... not too much later with Kh9... Flop comes 2 hearts... Turn is another heart and get all in... the same KJ guy from before had JTs (hearts) and made his flush... but what is that, Qh on river... yet another suckout.. He ends up going out a few hands later by losing with 88 to KQ... very bad luck for him... We've all been there... I ended moving all the way back up and finished in second for a whopping $1.42 profit... Good news... GCox also moved on to the second round. Unfortunately, that is how the story ends... we were both pretty shortstacked and G didn't make it past the 2nd round... I actually chipped up to the lead; but lost a few pots and then tried to move in on a couple of limpers with 22... unfortunately, the big stack woke up with KK and had an easy call and sent me packing. I did enjoy the format and probably will play again; albeit probably on a Friday as these tournies can go pretty late.

Since it was the beginning of the month, it is also time to whore out some of the monthly casino bonuses.. I promptly put my $90 into Intercasino and got my 100% bonus. I decided to do $5 a hand as opposed to the recommended $1 or $2 a hand prescribed by Scurvy Dogs list of casino bonuses. If anybody is not doing these, it might be worth your while to check them out as it is a pretty easy way to pad your bankroll by a couple hundred a month. I didn't have too much luck last month; but I haven gotten off to a nice start this month as I was able to complete the WR with a $120 profit. Playing $5 a hand only took me a couple of hours maybe to play the needed amount. I realize that playing $5 a hand is going to have a higher variance and I am willing to live with that.

Now, let's see... $306 for poker... $1.42 for tournament... $120 for Blackjack.. and let's even throw in $10 in rakeback for a nice day of $437. Now let's extrapolate that out for 7 days... $3,059 a week... and extrapolated out for the year.. that is a nice $159K year. I guess I can handle that.. it barely beats the day job... lol.. Oh wait.. you can't expect to win that everyday... what... Variance.. what is that? Oh.. you don't play everyday... Ah.. thanks for dashing my dreams.

OK, OK, I'm back to reality... As we now know, I am only playing 4 days a week now so I should only expect $90K a year.

Thanks for humoring me with such idol, unrealistic dreams... Oh, but it was fun adding up the numbers there for a while. Speaking of 4 days a week, I will not be playing Wed or Thur. I don't know what the odds makers are putting on the chances that I can stay away from playing poker for 2 days. My confidence is high at this point.

I will not, however, be totally away from poker as I plan to look back at my October Ring (excluding last Saturday's fiasco) play as suggested by CC which I will post tomorrow or the next day. Check back as I think you might find it interesting to walk through my month and try to find the leaks and strengths of my game. Until then, keep the chips flying and keep raking in throse monster pots.

2 comments:

cc said...

Thanks for the shoutout--and hope you're not going through what I've been through (24-hour bug caught from my ten year-old).

Look forward to seeing your deepdive.

TripJax said...

As always your $$ talk amazes. Youza big boy.

I can't wait to hit up a shootout on a random friday night. I'll see you there...

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