Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Game of the Year

This week is the week we have all been waiting for in the NFL. The matchup of the year. Of course, I'm talking about the Cowboys / Eagles game with Tony's new contract. OK, while that game is huge to me; I must admit that the NE / Indy game is far more intriguing. Let's take a look at this game in detail to try and figure out who covers the spread.... But, as usual, more on this later.

Let's start with my fantastic night of SNGs. Again, just one set of 6. That would be 0 for 6 with 3 bubbles and 1 5th and 2 others including a 9th.

Bubble 1... 98s see a flop of T73. I push with my open ender against big chip leader in Blind vs Blind. He calls with a 7 and I miss my 14 outs twice.
Bubble 2... Again B vs B and I have J7s.. Flop JT7... again all chips go in with me a 69% fav.. River pairs the T and I am outkicked and kicked out of tourney
Bubble 3... This was OK as I pushed KTo from button and got called by JackAce and I didn't improve

The 5th place was also a little painful.. I open push with AQ on a steal attempt. Unfortunately, I get 2 callers.. One with KK and one with AJ... I get my miracle Ace on the flop and I am looking good. Well, until the Jack comes on the turn. IGHN. Brutal.

Oh what the heck. Let's look at the rest.

8th place: I'm in SB with AT... folded to button who min raises... Boy do I hate min raisers and I go ahead and push.. he calls with KQ. T on the flop. Any guesses as to what came on the river. Q.

9th place.. nothing exciting here. I pushed with TT and get called by JT.. J on flop..

This puts me at exactly 0$ for the month. Nice!! At least there is little bit of rakeback to go with that.

---------------------------

Now, New England vs Indianapolis

Is there anybody sane enough to bet against the Patriots. The public money seems to be all over the Patriots on them. The opening line was had NE as a 5.5 favorite. That line has now moved to 6 on some sites and even as high as 6 1/2 at others.

BetUS.com is one of the sites that has the line at 6 1/2. So, if you are on Indy, this might be a good place to go. While you are there, you can also play poker and other casino games as it is one of the US friendly sites. They are on the same network as Cake Poker so there may be some rakeback deals out there. I didn't find any at first glance. Feel free to look at the links at the top right of blog for more info.

Back to the game. I'm not so sure NE is the play here.

First, Indy is the defending Super Bowl Champs and they have not lost a game this year either so I'm sure that they have a chip on their shoulder for all the publicity that NE is getting.
Second, they are at home and that has to mean something. Even in Indy which to me is one of the more docile enviornments that I have seen; at least when I went to a Cowboys game there.

Here are a couple of fun facts:

Indy has covered the spread every time at home (4-0).
The underdog in this matchup is 9-3-1 in the last 13 matchups.
The Colts have gone over the number 2 out of 3 times at home and the only time NE didn't go over the number was on the road.

Marvin Harrison is due back for this game while Sammy Morris and Ben Watson are still out.

Now, this IS a revenge game for NE as they lost the AFC Championship to Peyton and the boys; but I believe they have moved passed that.

What we may be overlooking in this game with 2 very powerful offenses is the defenses of both these teams. Indy is actully #1 in the AFC against the pass and 3rd overall in combined defense.

I have said it before and I will say it again. Tom Brady is the Best Quarterback I have EVER seen and that includes Peyton Manning. I've seen my share of great QBs (Staubach, Aikman, Montana, Elway, Unitas a little, Favre and the list goes on) and Tom Brady is second to none.

Having said that, I think I am leaning with Indy and the Under on this one. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind.

I wonder what Miami Don has to say about this game or is still jacked up on his deep run in the 750K. Congrats, by the way, on that.

Have a nice day!!!!

3 comments:

jamyhawk said...

Rough night in the SNG's.

You make a good case for INDY, but NE has looked sooooo good this year. I would not bet this game, but if I had to choose, I would take the points. No way I see one team blowing out the other.

As for the winner? We'll know that Sunday.

Miami Don said...

It's really hard not to take Indy at home plus the points but NE is on such a mission this year that if they get ahead they won't take their foot off the gas.

I'm not betting the game. I'll just watch it for pure enjoyment.

WillWonka said...

Novel concept.. watching for the enjoyment of it. That has been lost in these days of fantasy football and sports betting.

Who links to my website?