Thursday, May 15, 2008

American Idol Pot Odds and Mook and Do You make the Call

So, American Idol is down to the final two and nobody is surprised that it is the two Davids although as I said, I believe Cook and Syesha should be in the finals; buy maybe and just maybe, this is better for Syesha. After she gets done whatever AI tour there is, she will be very successful. Wait a minute, this is a poker blog so let's talk poker.... lingo at least.

According to our friend Change100, David Cook is a huge 5-12 favorite with David Archuleta at almost 2-1 (19-10). I haven't seen any updated odds after last nights show so I will assume that they are still in that ballpark. My question to all your gambooolers out there.. Do we have pot odds to call a bet on Archuleta.

David Cook is by far and away the best contestant and it shouldn't really be close. He sings better, better stage present, etc, etc.. and it is no surprise that he is the favorite; but it would be a sucker bet to bet on him at those odds.

David Archuleta on the other hand is getting nice odds. In poker, we almost always call when getting 2-1. The boy definitely has a following. This is the first season that I have ever watched of AI; but I can assume that the best do NOT always win making this bet rather intriguing.

So, while I think Cook is going to win, I just may have to plop $50 down on Archuleta (I know, big spender) and see what happens.

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Speaking of friends, we know our buddy Jamyhawk preaches the gospel of folding KK, I may need to change that around. I played in the Mook last night like I always do and for the 3rd straight bloggerment, my JJ lost to a bigger pair. At least this time it wasn't AA like it was the previous 2 times. It was Drizz's QQ that did me in this time. Even before I called I know I'm going home and type in gg and proceeded to see me leave the tournament early... again. So, I may be changing my blog name to How to Fold JJ.

BTW, I did get my KK cracked again last night. This time with AT. It is always amazing that somebody will not only 4 bet with AT; but will call a 5 bet all in with AT. I guess he knows that there is always an Ace on the board so why not. It doesn't help anything that the Ace came on the river. DOH!!!!!

I was just above break even on the night in Cash Games. I had one fairly tough call to make or not make. It was definitely in the category of Overbet for Value.

The villain is your typical uber LAGgy Maniac with stats of 60/40/3.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
CO: $22.75
Hero (BTN): $53.40
SB: $19.50
BB: $37.05
UTG: $20.00
MP: $57.25

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with Ks As
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.75, 2 folds, MP raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($22.25) 5d 7s 3s (2 players)

MP bets $47.25 all in, Hero ????

Anybody make this call?

Anybody just push preflop?


Have a nice day!!!

8 comments:

cmitch said...

IMHO, I think that just calling there preflop is bad. It is either a fold or shove. The MP guy limped and then 4 bet two other guys. This screams of a big hand in the low limit games (unless you have a read on the guy or have seen him doing it a lot). I fold preflop if the guy has played tight straight forward and probably shove preflop if the guy is pretty loose. I am definitely guilty of calling in that spot a lot though and it is one of my leaks. If he has 1010-QQ, are you really going to get any more out of him on an A or K high flop?

Flop - based on the way you played it, I think I fold.

WillWonka said...

I did miss last night that he limped re-raised.

Given that he was a 60/40/3 guy, I probably should have shoved preflop. Although I see that folding is not too bad. Even the manics get hands.

And they usually tip them off by limp / reraising... DOH!!!!

pokerpeaker said...

I realize the guy is a maniac, but you have an off-suit drawing hand, and it's a cash game. I play A-K drastically different in cash games and tournaments. In tournaments I don't mind getting all-in with it as long as I'm the aggressor, but in cash games I never ever get all in pre flop unless the guy's a shortie. Why would you? Plus A-K hasn't hit for me lately.

I don't like your call of the re-raise there. I rarely re-raise with A-K at our levels, unless there's a bunch of others I need to chase out.

I''m dead certain he has an overpair and you're drawing to six outs. Maybe some others if the right card hits on the turn.

WillWonka said...

Thanks peaker.. I probably agree with AKo; but this was AKs (fixed the error in my post)...

I do not like my call now either. Perhaps, missing some details by playing 4 tables. Whatever it was, it defintely was a push or fold situation. And in 6max, I am 3 betting AKs all day.

Push or Fold preflop now seems to be the more pertinent question?

Looks like mitch might be pushing (since villain is a loose player) and you might be folding (taking the conservative approach).

For the most part, I don't think either is wrong; but calling definitely is. My bad.

Klopzi said...

I'm in the shove school of thought as well. You can't call pre-flop and then fold post-flop: pot's too big and you're giving up way too much.

So the question is: are you gonna fold AK against a laggy asshat? No? Shove pre-flop.

MorningThunder said...

Feel like gambling? You are a slight favorite on the flop if he is holding QQ-TT. Has to be one of those. I doubt he plays AA or KK that way.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

WTF am I missing? Did cmitch say to fold the flop? Um... ok... I couldn't call fast enough dude. I would uberinstacall. You got AK of spades on an all low two spade board and you are thinking about folding when you are getting 1.5:1???

I also love how everyone wants to shove AK pre. You have position, nothing wrong with calling. Heads up against a lag, I don't want to flip for it. I'll play me some post flop poker. But, if u r afraid of flops, then by all means shove. Personally, I see nothing wrong with your call.

There are times to push and times to call. Doesn't have to be one way or another. Use the position to your advantage.

cmitch said...

FWIW RR - It wasn't shown as AKs when I commented. It was shown as AKo. AKs, Im shoving all day.

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