Thursday, January 29, 2009

Hero Call or Insantiy

Full Ring started off pretty good and then I had my normal meltdown of a 3 buyin down day. I've a little bit of it back and I am up a little over 6 buyins over about 6300 hands. Here is a chart.

I'm running at a 18.7/13.8/2.41 over those 6300 hands. 3betting at 4.9%. I've starting calling a little more than 3 betting lately. I think it is not working and need to stay in the lead.
I had a fairly un-interesting hand the other day that I could use some thoughts.

Villain 28/15/1.5over 135 hands
River Aggression 7.0 or 47% over 15 hands.

How often is the river bet a bluff here?

Full Tilt p0ker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $107.15
MP1: $101.50
MP2: $100.00
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $83.60
SB: $49.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $111.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Kh Ac
4 folds, MP2 raises to $4, Hero raises to $13.50, BTN calls $13.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($32.50) 9s 3d Th (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($72.50) 7d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($72.50) 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $50.10 all in, Hero calls $50.10

I think this is bluff enough times to call?


One more time.

Go Kurt Warner and Fitz and the rest of the Cardinals.

I truly believe that they have a shot.


Klopzi said...

You've played your hand pretty transparently.

Villain is likely betting a pocket pair for value. Or he may have picked up the backdoor flush draw on the turn and gotten there. Or he may have something strange like a carefully played JJ.

I'd just fold and choose a better spot to make a hero call.

noldmax said...

It's gotta be a bluff at least 40% of the time for a call to be profitable. But does a bluff include a pair of 3's? A busted straight draw (67s) that rivered a pair of 7's? More likely is a 9 (A9, 98), a rivered flush, or a flopped set of 10s. I think there are too many ways you can be beat, and I don't see all-in bluffs like this that often (not 40% at least). In general, I don't have this call in my repertoire. Maybe I should.

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