Tuesday, May 26, 2009

1 on 3.2 Million Chance and Bad Weekend

What are the odds of flopping a set of kings in two consecutive hands at the same table. That's one in 3.2 million. Yikes, I should have bought a lottery ticket that day. The odds supplied by our friendly neighborhood twoplustwo poker forum.

The first hand I had an interesting decision to make.

Villain is a 32/3/1.3 over just 34 hands.

Full Tilt p0ker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/132671
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $50.00
SB: $48.50
BB: $44.60
UTG: $54.90
UTG+1: $41.10
UTG+2: $54.55
MP1: $42.65
MP2: $52.85
CO: $60.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Kh Kc
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $2.25, MP1 calls $2.25

Flop: ($9.00) 9s Ks Tc (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $3, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $11.50, UTG+2 calls $8.50

Turn: ($32.00) Js (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $11.50, Hero ??

Can I just call? Or do I push and pray? Or just fold.

The second hand, I took it down with a continuation bet.


For the most part, the weekend was pretty bad. I lost a little over 3 1/2 buyins. According to the Allin EV calculations (which don't really take everything into consideration), I should have about broke even.

Here is a chart.

Have a nice day!!!


noldmax said...

I had a nasty weekend too. But this is a gross spot for a set of Ks. You're being laid the right odds to draw to a boat, regardless of the implied odds. So a call is a must. I don't really think you can raise, given how much beats you here.

The tough question is how much do you call if the river bricks off. Pot will be sized nicely for your villain to shove, so that's what I'd expect, although his stats suggest that he might not. Or, if checked to, do you consider a small value bet, or are you just thrilled to show down?

WillWonka said...

I did call and got lucky and boating. Our villain did have the straight and pushed on the river. Gotta love it.

As far as the river. I would have checked it back almost for sure.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

This is gonna sound hypocritical considering most of my comments to you so far has been to make the proper turn decision (ie, if you call turn, call river, etc) but on this hand, i would just call the turn bet. There's no value in raising here and rather, I would be hoping for the board to pair. If it doesn't, I will fold to his river shove/hope for a checkdown.

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