Monday, October 12, 2009

Failed Experiment and Hand against TAG on river

For whatever reason, I decided to try sum Super Turbo SNGs on FTP this weekend. For those of you who don't know what there are; they are SNGs where you start with only 300 chips and pretty much turns into a shove-fest. Of course you know that going in so you try to make the best of it and over time, you hope that you get the best of it. As it turned out, it was a big failed experiment as I threw away $200. I think I ran a little bad as I looked at the stats it was as bas as I thought.

Equity Win%

0-30% 13%
31-50% 43%
50-70% 52%
70-100% 75%

Total 44%

I would hope that my total (with my overall poker experience) would be great than 50%

One game, on the very first hand, I had pocket aces and got called by AK and he hit runner, runner straight. DANG!!!

Here is a hand against a known TAG. He is really tight and makes me wonder what to do on this river.

His stats are 12/8/2.0 over 22K hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $100.00
MP2: $127.70
CO: $103.40
BTN: $74.50
SB: $104.05
BB: $54.25
UTG: $85.95
UTG+1: $68.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with As Ah
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.50) 4c 6d 7s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, CO calls $7, SB folds

Turn: ($25.50) Jc (2 players)
Hero bets $16, CO calls $16

River: ($57.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero ???

What kind of hands do we put this guy on that he would be calling down the whole way. Other than a set, does he have QQ+. I pretty much know he doesn't have AK. Did he call turn with a Flush Draw (which puts AK suited back in play I guess). Is it possible that he has 33 or 88 for a straight? Against his range, is a bet warranted here? If I do bet, how much do I bet and do I fold to a shove or does a bet commit me?

Have a nice day!!!


spritpot said...

If you bet river, it's def not for value as I don't think he'll ever call with a worse hand. I guess you could try and shove to rep an 8 or JJ to make him fold a flopped or rivered set but...I'd advise against it unless you are pretty sure he can fold a set. I'd just check/fold probably.

pokerpeaker said...

How willing are you to put him specifically on QQ? That's about the only hand that will call your bet. He doesn't have KK (I don't think) because he would have re-raised you.
I don't know what he has, maybe A-K or A-Q with a flush draw that he got on the turn, but he's not calling that. I check and hope he doesn't bet.

lightning36 said...

I think that smokkee had a strategy post on these not too long ago. He was doing quite well in them as I recall.

WillWonka said...

Against this player, I just thought QQ or KK or a missed backdoor flush draw was possible so I led out for $37 and he pushed. I couldn't really fold getting over 4.5 to 1 and called and he turned over 88 for a rivered straight.

For this player or any real tight player to call two streets with a gutterball surprised me.

I felt if he had the set he would have raised on the turn. Oh well, live and learn.

Henrik said...

+1 on the check-line. If he's such a tight player I really can't see any other hand than QQ that would have sticked around all the way to the river that we still can beat. If he had AK he really hadn't any strong draws on the flop, so I would expect him to either fold to your beat or try to reraise you out of the hand (and fold if you play back).

My guess is that he either hit a set/twopair on the flop or had a good draw that became even stronger on the turn. 9c 8c comes to mind... Even a very tight player can be expected to play this sort of SC-hand from position with deep enough stacks, can't he?

If he does a relatively small bet on the river in response to our check I guess it might be a crying call. To a bigger bet I most likely fold.

Henrik said...

oops - bloggers posted new response before my post was finished :-)

Interesting... As you said 88 wasn't the hand we expected to find. But if we try to see it from his point of view it might not be that surprising:

- Given the texture of the flop I would say a call on the flop is mandatory. There's so many unpaired hands in your raising range that he probably has the best hand right now.

- The turn doesn't really change things much. A jack is less likely to have helped you than a king, an ace or a queen. Isn't this a type of board that we would expect a player with just two overcards to fire a second barrel against? The added equity from the backdoor straight justifies a call here if he doesn't have a read on you as a very tight and almost never bluffing player.

- On the river... well everything went exactly the way he could have hoped for. I still think you should check in order to cut your losses

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