Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Fighting Through Things and a Bluff until the river

So yesterday, I am still a little tentative over my huge down day from last week; but I can't let that stop me; but having 12 All in Hands and not winning 8 of them doesn't help things. I was a favorite in 9 of them. The good news is that I still had a 33.74 bb/100 win rate over 1000 hands.

This hand I decided to call in position with the thoughts of bluffing my way through this hand against this opponent.

His stats are:

29/17/2.3 over 727 hands
CBets 43% and Folds to CBets 71%

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $50.85
UTG: $92.55
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $12.65
MP1: $4.75
Hero (MP2): $50.00
CO: $32.75
BTN: $9.75
SB: $17.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with 7s As
UTG raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

He is kind of a loose type players that only seems to cbet his good hands. His raising from UTG also means that he has something. Whether it is a pair or two high cards, we don't know yet.
So I call with position knowing that I can take away the hand most times; especially if he doesn't cbet.

Flop: ($5.00) 8d 5h Ts (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $6.50, SB folds, UTG calls $4.50

Great Flop for me even though it didn't hit me. It is the kind of hand that would hit somebody cold calling. No flush draw; but there are straight draws and of course pair possibilities against a AQ+ KJs+ KQ type hand. He leads out less than half pot. What do you normally take of this? I took it as possible weakness and raised him. Dang.. he called.

Turn: ($18.00) Jh (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $13.50, UTG calls $13.50

OK.. Jack probably doesn't help him so I keep up my aggression by betting and again he calls. Now, I know he has something. I now have $28 left in this $45 pot.

River: ($45.00) Ah (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ????

So now I actually have some showdown value. Do you bet or do you take the cheap showdown?

Have a nice day!!!


The Poker Meister said...

I'm likely opting for the cheap showdown. I'm going to look awfully foolish when he shows an AKo that wouldn't go away to your flop / turn bets. 17 PFR shows a pretty wide range, but AT+ is in his range (easily). The only hands you're beating here that may get a call are pocket pairs, which, at this point, he may very well have. It's a marginal bet / check decision & I go with check behind.

DubsPoke said...

What was your plan before the river? What is his range for calling a re-raise and then check-calling a decent-sized turn bet? If you can't answer that question, then you have suffered a bit of "data loss."

My guess is he has a pocket pair JJ-KK or a set. While it is always good to go for thin value, I don't think you would be going for a large chunk of the time. I'll have to pokerstove this as it is pretty interesting.

WillWonka said...

I did end up checking behind and he showed pocked queens. Good Call Dubs and PM. I don't really think he is calling the last $28 or whatever it was.

DubsPoke said...

Yeah, a good player would have folded to your river push...

But in retrospect (or perhaps I'm being results oriented), he might have stacked off to you.

He is going to be putting YOU on a range of AT, KT, JJ, a set, or some sort of weird draw.

A player that calls a re-raise and then check-calls another raise is probably committing himself to the river.

But as I said before, I'm certainly not good enough to go for that thin of value without having a real strong grasp of table dynamics and game flow.

Nice blog by the way. I read it through google reader all the time. I just need to become more involved in the actual discussion =)

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