Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Should I fear the monster or does he fear the monster

For me, it typically comes down to one hand that either makes or breaks my session; especially since I play shorter 1 hour type sessions each day. For me a session is anywhere from 45 minutes to 1 hour 15 minutes. As I have said, I play for the 200 pts (and now trying 300 pts) a day and call it quits.

Here is the hand that either made or broke my session and it involved pocket Jacks. Does anybody else hate pocket Jacks? Play them like aces or deuces.. just choose and do it based on the situation. Of course, that is not all true; but that is what it feels like some time.

Villain is a 16/7/3.2 over 5K hands.
Squeeze 2% CB 75% 4bet 10%

All stats of a typical tight aggressive player. Preflop, he doesn't seem to be as aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/323950
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $114.50
MP1: $51.50
Hero (MP2): $132.60
CO: $113.25
BTN: $173.55
SB: $100.00
BB: $106.05
UTG: $25.35

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Jc Jd
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $11.50

I decided to call as I might have the best hand and I have position.

Flop: ($34.50) 5h 8d 2h (2 players)
SB bets $17.25, Hero calls $17.25

Half pot? hmmmm

Turn: ($69.00) 9h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Now he checks. Should I fear a monster type hand or is he fearing a monster type hand. Either way, should I represent it or try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible? If I check and he bets a blank on the river, what is he plan. What if it is a card over a Jack?

Have a nice day!!


Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

If you think the guy is a tricky, trappy type then I would definitely check here and hope you get a better feel on the river if you can steal this pot or not.

If he's a by the book guy and you're less worried about him just making his flush or having pocket Aces and purposely checking the turn to move in on you with a checkraise if you bet, then I would consider taking a stab at this pot. The trick would be to bet enough to not be callable by a guy on a flush draw with an overcard, but not so much that it looks like you really want him to fold. I'm thinking somewhere around 2/3 of the pot or so seems about right. And then if you get raised, you're obviously beat.

pokerpeaker said...

I bet here because he might fold QQ and possibly even KK after you "hit your flush," which is what a strong bet here could suggest. It's also possible he has A-K. His stats don't suggest to me he's very trappy. I think there are enough hands, combined, that you could beat or could fold for a bet. Hell, he might even fold AA here! I might. If he just calls, I'm done with the hand.

The Poker Meister said...

You flatted an UTG+1 raise, then re-flatted a SB 3 bet... He's a thinking regular (5K hands). What kinds of hands does he put you on in order to call a 3bet PF? I doubt he has you on AA or KK (would have expected you to raise / ship pre-flop). I doubt he has you on AK as well (same story; probably raising). I put him on AK, but I'm seriously concerned about AKs and he just made his draw. His flop cbet is standard; 75% statistically as you said above.

More negatives: you don't have the Jh. I would try not to put another dime into this pot and check behind, looking for a cheap showdown. You may be giving up a heart re-draw, but you're in bad shape any way you slice it: he has 9 hearts to redraw, and 9 overcards with which to scare you, in addition to the potentially made overpair. I'm willing to give up my (at best) 60/40 favorite on the turn to see a free card.

Finally, I'm probably folding to a river shove, which seems to be the most logical move in his book. If an overcard shows up, fold. If another heart shows up, fold.

TBH, I don't like the way you played this hand pre-flop. You should have been the one 3betting. I'm not sure why you smoothed the originally raiser. You would have known exactly where you stood immediately if the villain had the guts to 4 bet pre flop (easy fold). It would have been a whole lot cheaper than the expedition you went on here...

noldmax said...

Interesting spot Will. The problem here is that your limp-call 3-bet PF narrows your range quite a bit, assuming that you have a reasonable 3-bet % yourself (i.e., there's usually a narrow range for flatting a raise and then flatting a 3-bet - something like 99-QQ/AK/AQ). If villain is decent, him knowing that you are most likely holding a middle pair gives him control here, even from OOP. He can fold A-x knowing he's behind, or he can c/r (either bluffing or semi-bluffing with a big heart) since you'll have to give him credit for AA/KK. If he has AA/KK, he may be planning a c/r anyway, esp. if he is holding the Ah/Kh.

So, I much prefer checking back the turn. If the river is a heart, I probably fold to any bet. Pretty tough to call on an A or K as well. I'm calling a bet if any non-heart rag falls. The tougher question is what to do if a rag falls and villain checks. I'm not sure you'll get a call from anything worse, except maybe TT, but a decent player may even fold TT here. But you could easily get looked up by a tentatively-played AA-QQ. I'm thinking I would probably check back.

The Poker Meister said...

@Noldmax - You think 99-QQ are flatting a 3 bet like this, in this similar situation? I can't imagine there is much value in set mining here with 99-QQ on a 3 bet. I think 99-TT are generally giving up (fold to the 3 bet) with JJ (less likely) and QQ raising; AK is raising as well unless it is a particularly weak player which Will is not. Will is a regular, as is the villain. Both are knowledgeable enough to know that there is little set mining value here with small to mid PPs.

Again, interesting spot but not well played from the onset.

spritpot said...

this is like...not close IMHO...easy fold preflop. I guess you have to call the flop having called pf and the flop bet being small.

But there is NO REASON to be the turn. His range for raising preflop is pretty much exactly AK, QQ+, and maybe not QQ or AK some of the time. The only part of that that will fold here is AK, and you beat that. And it will be AK no hearts because if he had a heart he'd shove this turn almost for sure. You have one psb left. Check back. He will not be folding an overpair. He's not scared of the heart necessarily, he's just trying to stack off against a weak a range as possible. He realizes you'll probably fold JJ/TT if he shoves the turn, but you might bet them if he checks, especially if you have a heart. If he has QQ+, he will often be check/calling rather betting, and I'd certainly never think check/folding. How many suited hands do you have that call/call preflop? MAYBE AhQh and/or AhKh? Probably not even those very often. And then you're probably shoving those hands on this flop much of the time. If he has a brain and thinks you have a brain he has no reason to think you have a flush.

You can shove a river heart as a bluff if he checks to you, as you can easily rep something like JsJh in that case. River offsuit Js you're obviously calling a shove/shoving yourself if he checks again. Anything else you check back.


Henrik said...

very interesting hand and excellent analyzes. ty guys!

I'm on the check-line as well. Although there's a decent chance we could bet for value this looks to me like a text book example of a spot where pot control is the right way to go because of the very marginal situation it is (at best) under all circumstances.

WillWonka said...

OK.. as opposite of the other day when the consensus was wrong, the consensus here is overwhelmingly right.

My thoughts. He squeezed. He is a squeezer at 2% which isn't high; but isn't low. In other words, I'm not just putting him on Aces and Kings. I'm calling more or less for value in position.. not set mining as I do NOT have odds for that.

Weak 1/2 pot bet. He Cbets fairly often at 72% so this weak bet opens up his range a bit. It's looking closely like a way ahead, way behind situation.

Turn completes flush. I wish I had the Jack of Hearts. My typical low variance style of play says to check it back here, you all say to check it back here, what do I do?

I bluff shoved to represent something. I've seen it too many times where a sqeezer will squeeze, make a cbet and give up.

He didn't give up and had aces and I lost a stack.

Perhaps like Hoy said, I over-repped my strength. The thing is I can't really bet fold so it is a check or shove.

Nice comments.

spritpot said...

2% IS low. aces and kings make up about 1% of all hands. QQ is another .5%. AK is another 1.5% or so. And in this case he's squeezing an EP raiser and a MP caller, which makes his squeezing range tighter than usual.

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