Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Poker on TV and Good time to Bluff?

I am really, really enjoying High Stakes Poker. If there is any doubt that Tom 'durrrr' Dwan is the sickest player on the planet, then watch last weeks episode. I should also mention a very close second with Patrick Antonius calling Phil Laak's bluff with bottom pair (or close to it.. a pair of 4s). It is definitely one show I don't miss. Meanwhile, I have about 7 World Poker Tours on the DVR to be watched and about 10 Poker After Darks. I will say that I have been keeping up on the Heads Up Championship. It's not always the best poker; but it is fairly quick and for the most part fun to watch.


Things are beginning to feel eerily familiar as far as the way I am running. The last two days have seen me running into coolers... bad beats, etc... I found myself 1 1/2 buyins down last night. I guess the good news is that I was over 5 buyins down at one point and I did fight my way back. I felt I wasn't tilting off like I was the previous night and still felt strong enough to keep on fighting; however, I did get to a point where I found a good stopping point even though I had not made it all back. I think that is definitely a difference in me that maybe 1 year ago where I would just keep playing until I made it back or in a lot of cases lost a lot more. I now have that sense of when I am playing good poker (more or less).

Last night I ran into a hand against a known player to me. He is a good player and is the kind of guy that senses weakness and goes for it. So, I hand came up where I thought (at the time anyway) that it was a good bluffing opportunity. Here is the hand:

Villain is a 13/10/2.5 over 2K hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $138.70
UTG: $79.25
UTG+1: $34.75
Hero (UTG+2): $51.65
MP1: $30.85
MP2: $129.35
CO: $46.75
BTN: $51.55
SB: $65.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Qd As
UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, CO raises to $4.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $3.75

Why I limped, I can't remember. I seem to remember either misclicking or trying a limp out. Either way, I don't really like limping here (especially in this position)and I'm not sure why I did it.

Flop: ($11.25) 6s Kh 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO calls $7

Ok.. is villain just playing position or does he have a hand. My thoughts were that he was just playing position. He just calls. Not exactly what I was wanting.

Turn: ($25.25) 5s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

hmmm.. check behind.. kind of smells like a pair below Kings.

River: ($25.25) 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $23, CO requests TIME, CO ??

Ok.. I thought he had a middle type pair here. What is it going to take to win this pot? Can I win the pot? So I chose to bet almost a pot sized bet. Again, this guy is a good player so I know he can lay down a good hand if he thinks he is beat; but does my line make any sense. I'm trying to think what he thinks I might have. He thought a long, long time before he acted. I won't say whether he called or folded at this point.


Have a nice day!!!


Klopzi said...

I think you have a better chance of getting Villain to lay down on the turn.

Unless he puts you on a hand like 77, he's going to call you I'd think.

Then again, this is $50 NL so he could just see four cards to the straight and just fold.

noldmax said...

It's a pretty good board to bluff on, given how many hands in your PF calling range get there. The odd piece is your donk lead on the flop. What range do you, or most, make that lead with? Could be a weak K, a pair like TT or JJ, maybe a FD or OESD. So if he has something like QQ or a decent K, he may figure you for turning your hand into a bluff. I like the bet looks like a strong value bet with a made hand. Very hard for him to call with a JJ/QQ/KQ type hand.

WillWonka said...

Yes.. the donk bet. I hardly, if ever donk bet on a raised pot.

My intention was to look like a weaker king like KJ or KT or a flush and/or straight draw. It can be either right as he obviously doesn't know what I have.

So many scare cards out there, it really makes him have to something to call.

spritpot said...

I don't like the donk bet either. And given the donk bet, you need to bet/call the turn IMHO.

It's easy to say having seen your hole cards now, but I don't think I would be folding anything better A9 or better. I would even be kind of tempted to call with A8, just because I don't think you'd make the same size river bet with AK or any worse K (show me a HH where you have made this bet in the same situation with KJ and I will stand corrected). Also your pre-flop actions aren't very consistent with KJ or KQ. To me you're repping a frush, 99, or 66. And 99/66 I think you'd xr on the frop more than you'd donk bet.


pokerpeaker said...

I think you tell a good story there. "I had a flush draw or AK or QK, so I bet. I checked the turn because my flush filled up (or because I saw the flush on the turn and it scared me). When you checked behind I didn't put you on the flush because it seems you me you'd want to be the turn there to get more money in the pot. I have to bet the river for value because I a) got my flush or b) have a pair I think is better than yours or else you would have raised on the flop."
I like it. PLus you know he's a good player and can fold.

WillWonka said...

Hmmm.. I think my line is consistent to a one pair (weak King) hand. I donk out; but that slow down for pot control after potential flush gets there.

The check behind, I can now bet the K... but even more than that, with that bet size, I am trying to rep K7s or 77 or something that makes a straight.

I can also see checking the turn with a flush against this opponent because as I said he bets on weakness and check raise him.

All in all, even out of position, he had to make the decision and he folded. I have to think he had TT-QQ or something similar.

Any thoughts as to what he folded?

spritpot said...

You're going to call a raise UTG+2 and a button re-raise with K7s? That's a really tough sell. Your mostly like 7 is 77, and for that you would have had to decide to donk bet the frop, which I imagine you do rarely with 77 in this situation. I'd maybe give you credit for 87s...a frush maybe, but if I'm a virrain sitting there with QQ-TT with one spade, I'm taking a hand or two out of your flush range. 9h8h marginally possible...I really wouldn't be sold on a K with your bet sizing though. Most players have very polarized ranges when making large river bets.


Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I can see you playing spades that way, even though you might checkraise with a spade draw more often than you would donk bet. But, it's such a weird line that the river bet is kinda interesting. Your line smells of a monster or a total bluff. It's so close that I might look you up.

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