Friday, November 13, 2009

Does he Have it?

A very strange month. I am negative on all of my Pot Limits and positive on all of my No Limit levels. That is contrast to prior months. I have finally worked my way back to positive numbers for the month.

Today's hand is a question of whether or not he really has what he is representing.

Villain is 36/10/2.3 over 93 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

MP1: $16.50
MP2: $34.75
CO: $40.75
BTN: $50.00
SB: $29.85
Hero (BB): $71.40
UTG: $56.50
UTG+1: $53.95
UTG+2: $18.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Qs As
5 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.00) Tc Qd 3h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, CO folds, SB calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.00) 7c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9

River: ($33.00) Jh (2 players)
SB bets $14.35 all in, Hero ???

Getting a little over 3-1 here; but am I really good here enough to call? Only two real hands that I was afraid of which made straights for him.

2nd part... Bet sizing.. Espeicially on Turn. I'm trying to size bet so that he has to call bet on river (assuming that I am good). What do you think of turn bet size? Villain has $23 after he calls flop bet and $15 is in the pot.

Have a nice day!!!!


The Poker Meister said...

To be honest, I'm afraid of the rivered two pair more so than the straight that just got there. I don't think he's calling all the way down and shoving the river with 89... and he's certainly not slow playing AK PF. A 36/10 is going to RR AK by and large.

What is a VPIP 36's range? All broadway cards, connectors, suits. KJ, (certainly 89), KQ (which I think he would be pressing in prior action), J9...

I think I'm ahead of a lot of his range, though when a 36/10 leads out on the river, I have to imagine I'm beat - given your prior aggression, he wants to be sure you don't check behind on his made hand.

However, I think I am going to be good here enough times that I can pay it off this particular instance to force him to show. I am paying off the river, and not surprised to see JT QJ show down.

pokerpeaker said...

Yeah I was going to say he probably has two pair. I'd still call, tho.

WillWonka said...

I called and surprisingly he did have and had AK.

Henrik said...

Maybe not so surprisingly after all. OK, the initial call pre is a little bit unexpected but the line post isn't that what we could expect from this type of player. He has two overcards to the board and an inside straight draw: Of course he cannot let this hand go! His bad implied odds (due to his own relatively short stack) probably didn't bother him.

Removing the knowledge of his actual hand - should we call? I'm inclined to put +1x2 on the previous posters. But I don't like the odds pretty much. I can think of three possible hands that we beat: AJ, KQ and KJ + perhaps something 10c9c.

Hands that beat us:
AK, QJ, QT, JT, 33, 77, 89

It's probably a call even though but feels like close to a crying such :(

The Poker Meister said...

Sometimes you get coolered. I consider this one such time. Villain played the hand terribly and got rewarded at the end. I think you're going to get stacked in that spot almost every time, given the effective stack sizes of ~60BB.

He hit a 7 outter on the river... It's reassuring to me that this kinda crap happens to other people though - I find that donkeys constantly hit their flush / underpair set / etc. on the river against me, when they had a small remaining stack & close to 0 implied odds - I wind up stacking myself where the majority of the money was in good.

Whatever; had he 3bet you to $6-$7 PF, would you have been calling (which if he slow plays AK, would have been a more logical play)? I think the net effect would have been the same; he chases his gutter & overs, but if you call the 3bet, you would have gotten all the money in good prior to the river.

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