Wednesday, November 04, 2009

More of the Same; but at least a win for the night

I continued to have a bit of bad luck; but was lucky enough to have a small 6.77 bb/100 win for the night.

One hand for the day. Also as a reminder. I always put what I did in the previous posts at the end of the comments. So if you curious to see how the hand ended up, go back and see the prior post in the comments.

OK, for today.

UTG+2 is a 16/10/3.5 over 2.8K hands.
MP1 is 71/9/1.2 over 56 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

CO: $50.00
BTN: $53.80
SB: $60.20
Hero (BB): $54.70
UTG: $63.85
UTG+1: $79.00
UTG+2: $33.25
MP1: $49.15
MP2: $46.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Jh Ac
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.75, MP1 calls $1.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) Jc 3s 8c (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $4, MP1 raises to $17.50, Hero ???

Have a nice day!!!


pokerpeaker said...

This is probably what separates me from the more aggressive/profitable players. I am not willing to go to the mat with TPTK, especially in a cash game (as tournament blinds increase, that sort of thing, sometimes I might be forced to). You've got a guy betting and another guy raising, and they don't seem concerned about you at all. If you call here, you're getting your whole stack in, most likely.
Easy fold for me. What do others think about TPTK?

The Poker Meister said...

I agree with pokerpeaker. Definitely ditch & look for a better spot. I'm not so concerned about UTG+2, but MP1 is either hard overplaying his hand (his prior aggression factor would suggest that he does not do this most of the time), or he has a set or something better than you. I fold with a $1.25 loss (can't include the BB) and wait for a better spot because I know if this is standard play for MP1, I'm getting his stack anyway.

spritpot said...

For the nth time, AF means nothing after 56 hands. And even if it did, it is calculated independently of VPIP, so if you're VPIPing 71 % of the time and have an AF of 1.2, you're definitely playing one pair pretty aggressively a lot of the time.

As far as this hand: 1) if it weren't for the retard calling, this would definitely be a fold preflop. Even with him calling, I think folding is pretty reasonable. 2) Do you have UTG+2's cbet %? Why hasn't he bought in full? Anyway it kind of sucks that he's a little shorter b/c it makes it less likely that he'd fold QQ+ if you shove. But even so, I think it's a decent spot to shove. There's an excellent chance that you have MP1 beat. Really all you have to worry about are sets and J8. Maybe 83s. But he'll have a lot of lower jacks and draws as well, and you have the Ac, which is a blocker/redraw if he hits a flush on the turn. If MP1 has an're showing a lot of strength, so maybe he'll fold QQ, who knows. But if he's c-betting a reasonable % of the time, then he won't have you beat that often.

"Waiting for a better spot" vs. MP1 isn't a good thought process...if this were a HU game and you knew he only had 1 buy-in, maybe, but this is a full-ring game, so who knows if you'll have the next crack at him, and plus he might rebuy if you stack him here. Just take the most +EV play.


The Poker Meister said...

@brue / sprit- I'm not willing to stack off with TPTK against such an awkwardly aggressive raise. It is definitely a way ahead / way behind situation - and given that I don't really know what UTG+2 is planning, I'm going to cut my losses here and fold out of the hand with minimal loss. In fact, I likely would not have called the pre flop raise OOP like this in the first place perhaps I'm a nit).

I think it will become much more evident how he plays in future hands and, although I agree that there are no future guarantees that he will stick around / you will be in the spot later, I think it is a risky play in a marginal situation where you have a HUGE overall poker edge against a 71/9 player. Therefore, I thumbs-down the call / shove and thumbs-up the fold.

He can easily show up with a set of 3's, 8's J8s, J3s, Tc9c - all of which has you CRUSHED or (Tc9c) flipping / slightly behind. I personally try to avoid flipping for my stack when against a 71/9 donkey who I know will pay up later... rather than paying him off and having to get it back from him later.

noldmax said...

You're sandwiched pretty badly here, and you only have TPTK. Should be a pretty easy fold. Even though you are well ahead of UTG+2's range, you are almost certainly not ahead of both UTG+2 & MP1's ranges. Even if MP1's range is weighted towards draws, you can't risk UTG+2 deciding he wants to go with an overpair and then ending up drawing super slim.

spritpot said...

If UTG+2 c-bets reasonably wide, he won't have an overpair that often. You have a blocker to AA. Also MP1 has more money, so even if UTG+2 calls with QQ, you can still get half your money back by winning the side. You're more than flipping vs. MP1:

Board: Jc 8c 3s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.997% 58.60% 03.39% 52216 3023.50 { AcJh }
Hand 1: 38.003% 34.61% 03.39% 30837 3023.50 { KK, JJ, 88, 33, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KJs, QJs, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc7c, J8s+, J3s, T9s, 9c7c, 83s, AJo, A8o, KJo, QJo, J8o+, T9o }

And that's even assigning a fairly tight range to him I think.

Your huge overall edge doesn't mean you should pass up marginal +EV spots. This is a cash game, not a tournament.


spritpot said...

edit: obviously all those AcXc hands in his range are superfluous since you have the Ac

The Poker Meister said...

Without having played against said villain, I really can't see his stats and flop raise % - though in 52 hands it probably is not meaningful either (just as the AF, as you point isn't). However, in order to make a move like this, a "reasonable" player would have a severely cut down range... I think you're giving him far too little credit... Since I am at work, I don't have the benefit of poker stove, but I put the two player's hands on any combo of XcYc, AA, KK, JJ, 99, 88, 33 all Jacks, all 8's (less likely, given the GIANT raise -so maybe only give half of the 8's) and all Xc3c (covered above in the XcYc combos). If he has Xc3c, you're in almost as bad shape as if he has Tc9c, but the fact is that I'm assuming this player to be a donkey (71/9) so I don't think he's smart enough to know that Xc3c is a HUGELY powerful pushing hand (because that's a more obscured hand due to the counting of the outs; i.e. most players don't think about that hand as being very powerful)... I come back to believing he has, most credibly, Tc9c, a decent Jack, two pair or a set.

WillWonka said...

UTG+2 CB is 64% which is really neither high nor low.

spritpot said...

"I come back to believing he has, most credibly, Tc9c, a decent Jack, two pair or a set."

This is essentially the range I gave him too...realize that you crush the "decent jack" portion of his range, and it is much larger than the other parts. There's 8 combos each of KJ and QJ. There's 1 JJ combo, three each of 88 and 33. There's only two J8s combos. 6 total. Only one 83s and one J3s.

Henrik said...

I'm sure that for a good player with good reading skills it might be +ev to go all the way in this type of spots with TPTK. In the long run. Me personally:

- don't trust my own reading abilities in this kind of spot 100%
- try to avoid the most marginal situations in order to cut down my variance a little bit at least because of the negative impact it might have on my overall play when I'm running bad.

So that's why I fold this one, even though I believe that we will find ourself ahead on many occasions. Given the relatively reliable stats (2,8K) on UTG+2 I would say he has a range of perhaps 88+ and AQo+ for rising here and on this board I would also expect him to c-bet most of this hands. As for MP1 it mostly smells like a semibluff. But I would pass this opportunity and wait for a better spot like most of the rest.

WillWonka said...

While I'm not a math type player, I certainly try to put people on ranges and decide accordingly. Yes, I knew it was possible that he had me crushed; but there was a good chance that he other hands that I had beat.

Overall, I thought pushing was the right thing to do so that is what I did.

By the way, my call preflop was totally predicated on the fishy type player being in the hand so folding was never an option for me. Raising was; but I decided not to.

Anyway, UTG guy folded and MP1 showed J8 and I lost.

TPTK is always tricky. In fact that night I lost 4 hands with TPTK to 2 pair hands. Not all were all in hands; but at the end of the day, it is only one pair.

Thanks for the great comments.

The Poker Meister said...

Will - No doubt... based on the lively discussion this conversation elicits, I don't believe there is a "right" or "wrong," unless you're a results-oriented player. I honestly smell something funny in this hand, which is why I still hold by my original determination of fold. I find that when these 71/9-type players bet hard, they usually have something good. They don't think about any more advanced moves other than trying to either push other people off hands or get value for them. Clearly, this is how they make the good majority of their sustainment money. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that this guy got up after you doubled him up.

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