Thursday, November 12, 2009

Fold on the River with a Set?

Nice Comments yesterday. I put my actions in the comments.

Two hands where I have control in the hand on the turn until the river scare card comes the villain bets which leads to the always challenging, river decision.

Hand #1

Villain 50/0/1.0 over 30 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/365267
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $115.60
UTG+1: $29.55
MP1: $115.90
MP2: $51.65
CO: $100.00
BTN: $22.50
SB: $104.85
Hero (BB): $104.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 6c 6s
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $3, SB calls $3

Flop: ($12.00) Qs 6h 5h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, MP2 calls $7, SB calls $7

Turn: ($33.00) Ac (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 folds, SB calls $20

River: ($73.00) 8h (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Hand #2

Same villain as above


Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/365266
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $200.00
UTG+1: $34.00
MP1: $207.20
MP2: $203.00
CO: $111.50
BTN: $31.00
SB: $153.05
Hero (BB): $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 4c 4s
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 raises to $8, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, MP1 calls $6

Flop: ($25.00) 3h 4h 2s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($25.00) 9d (3 players)
Hero bets $16, MP1 calls $16, MP2 folds

River: ($57.00) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $22, Hero ??


Have a nice day!!!

3 comments:

Henrik said...

Small sample, but I don't think 15 limps and no raises on 30 hands is just co-incidence. This is a prototypical loose passive player (which also should mean his a more or less bad poker player)

Now what does this type of player have when he bets like this? I guess Harrington is right when he says that ALL players bluff occasionally. But let's say that most of the time he's not bluffing. He has some kind of hand, but is it as good as we believe that he tries to tell us?

I guess it's not a good idea to always call here. But I'm not sure if it's a good idea to always fold either. So maybe we should go with Harrington again and mix up our play. Fold the spots where it looks most likely that he in fact has a hand that beats us and call the others.

Should I walk this path I would fold Hand #1 and call Hand #2. I might be wrong but I can see more possible scenarios on H1 when he has us beaten than in H2. But it's very difficult decisions, would be much easier if it was som LAG or even a good TAG that could use this "scary card" for a bluff.

Shrike said...

Hand #1, I probably make a crying call.

Hand #2, I would bet nearly 100% of the time and likely fold to a raise. If you check, I think you have to call because you have to account for the instances where you have induced a bluff. Also, because both hands are against the same opponent, I would expect to have additional information and motivation to call in Hand #2 based on what might have happened in Hand #1.

-PL

WillWonka said...

I folded first hand and called the second hand I called he showed 55.

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