Monday, November 09, 2009

Moon or Cada and Aces on a Broadway Flop

I don't know about you; but I will be rooting for Darvin Moon tonight.

Here is a hand where of course I played badly. Any thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

MP1: $100.00 15/11/2.4 over 683
MP2: $25.95
CO: $7.30
BTN: $22.75 85/15/1.0 over 13
SB: $39.35
BB: $26.00 67/10/.8 over 22
Hero (UTG): $102.80
UTG+1: $71.05
UTG+2: $95.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with As Ac
Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $3.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Never really like 3 callers with Aces in early position.

Flop: ($14.50) Qh Td Kd (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, BTN checks

Who Cbets here?

How does the fact that there are 2 shorties factor into decision

Turn: ($14.50) Ts (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, BTN checks

Now what do you do?

River: ($14.50) 7h (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, MP1 raises to $22, BTN folds, BB folds, Hero ??

Even bad to worse, I don't bet on flop or turn; but then bet on river? Anybody else betting here? Getting 3.5 to 1 do I have to call?

Have a nice day!!


The Poker Meister said...

Two hands you're worried about: 77, Any ten, AJ or J9. Narrowing it down, you hold 2 Aces, so the possibility of AJ is somewhat outside - particularly given the amount of action seen thus far in the hand. The other consideration is that you have to generally discount AT, leaving you with Tens combinations such as randoms (i.e. T4s, etc.) or JT, QT, KT.

It is definitely a weird spot to raise here, on the river. The consideration, though, is that a 15/11 is likely to overlimp smaller pocket pair hands to see a flop. I don't have him on JT, QT, KT or random Tens. I have him on 77 for the rivered flush trying to extract value. His PF calling range in MP1 has to be pretty restricted; not to mention the fact that he is raising into 3 potential call / raisers.

That said, I call the $13 raise in principal to show down, but I'm going to be throwing money away.

All told, I would have bet the turn, and bet ~$8-$9. Any callers, I check / call it down to see a showdown. You're shooting in the dark.

Big D said...

As far as the WSOP goes, I'm not sure what to think. Judging by what's happened so far anything is possible.

Henrik said...

I agree with Poker Meister that 77 is almost the only hand that makes sense given this players stats and the action so far. On the other hand this strange scenario with 3 PF-callers and a scary board might produce some odd sequences when say KJ might take this line. But it doesn't sound very likely. A 15/11 player would normally fold KJ from MP to a raise.

I agree on betting the turn. The second T is in fact a quite good card for you since the vast majority of players without a T on his hand or an already made straight would fold.

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