Monday, November 16, 2009

Tom Terrific? and Frustrating Weekend

I was all set to say something about the dominance of Tom Brady; but even he can't overcome a crazy, crazy coaching decision. The Patriots more or less handed the game to the Colts last night. Regardless of whether the spot was right or not, that was a bad coaching decision.

To say that this was a frustrating weekend of poker would be an understatment. They say pictures say a thousand words so maybe I'll let this graph tell the story.

Also, the fact that I marked 62 hands to review while playing tells me that something was going on. Here is one hand.. What to do on river?

Villain is 19/3/2.2 over 175 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $98.25
MP: $133.90
CO: $161.90
BTN: $103.15
Hero (SB): $119.90
BB: $100.00
UTG: $109.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with As Qh
4 folds, BTN calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $3

Flop: ($9.00) 8h 3d Ac (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($21.00) 6h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.50, Hero raises to $33, BTN calls $22.50

River: ($87.00) 2c (2 players)
Hero ??

Have a nice day!!


The Poker Meister said...

There are plenty of lesser hands that call a river bet (namely Ax), but given your check / raise on the turn, you have repped real strength. If you check here, I think you miss a ton of value. Therefore, I bet about $30-$40 and call a raise.

I can kinda guess where you're going with this; i.e. villain either rivered a set, two pair, or trapped with an unlikely set of Aces. If that is the case, then sucks; you got outplayed. I've had that happen to me all of last month. Perhaps I play wrong, but this opponent hasn't given me any reason to slow down. Although I can only relate to $50NL, I have not seen very many villains be this tricky if he did hold a set the whole way. They will usually have given some indicator of strength by the turn AT LEAST...

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Completely disagree with Meister up there that "this opponent hasn't given me any reason to slow down." He not only called your preflop raise, but then he called your flop bet as well (with just one pair), and then he led out on the turn, and then he called your check-raise there for twice as much again as well. Not sure what more an opponent can do to make someone with just top pair 2nd kicker slow down than call a raise, call a bet and then lead out on the turn and call a big checkraise after you've shown strength both pre- and post-flop.

I don't mean to suggest that you are clearly beat, etc. which I do not at all believe. But I would most definitely not lead out on this river. I highly doubt he has AK (though he could and you gotta give him credit then for playing it so slow preflop and on the flop), but he could easily have two pairs with A6 or something similar in his hand. He open limp-called from the button here so he could almost have any two cards to see the flop with, and from there there's a lot of different ways he could have connected with the board.

I say no way I lead out here given the significant strength your opponent has shown throughout this hand. I would probably delay for a bit and then check as if I was considering betting with my strong hand, just to try to get him to check behind. If he bets smallish I would likely call, almost more to see what he has than because I actually think I'm ahead, and if he bets big enough I would consider folding.

In any event I don't think you are ahead here most of the time given this action, even at this buyin level. If he has just Ax then this is a truly horrible player even at this level.

The Poker Meister said...

@Hoy: "If he has just Ax then this is a truly horrible player even at this level." There are a TON of players who will play Ace rag at 50NL.

While I can see an argument for a check / check, I have seen way too much value missed on the river when the villain holds AJ, AT, A9, etc. (I, for one, have missed value in these types of spots as well.) They become calling stations because they "want to see" if their ace is good.

noldmax said...

Going for it on 4th and 2 was +EV:

I'm actually pretty sure that Belicheck is NOT beating himself up for that one - the media and general public's berating of him reflect much more poorly on their understanding of math and odds than it does on his coaching acumen. IMO.

As for your AQ hand, I actually like your line quite a bit. Go ahead and put the rest in on the river. If he picked up a heart draw then he'll snap-fold, but we're more interested and extracting value from worse A-x hands and bluff-catchers, if your villain is so inclined. Given that he has come this far, if he does have A9-AJ, I doubt he will lay it down to another ~$60 in an $87 pot. If he has 2-pair or a set, then wp by villain, but I def like the thin value shove here.

WillWonka said...

I did go ahead and shove and he called with a set of threes. DANG!!!

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