Wednesday, March 22, 2006

When are Sets not Golden

For a change, I am going to start with good news. My beloved Missouri State Bears beat Houston on Monday and now will be playing Louisville for a chance to go to New York. The Bears beat a Cardinal in the first round and some Cougars in the 2nd round.. Hopefully, they will be some more Cardinals this round. Louisville is only a 2 1/2 point favorite. I can't wait.. It will be on one of the ESPNs tonight so don't miss it.

On a related matter, I find it pretty hard to believe that George Mason is favored over Wichita State... but I should be used to the Missouri Valley not getting any respect.. You would think that 2 teams in the Sweet 16 would give you some respect... guess not. Having said that, those bookmakers are usually amazingly right on. I hope they are wrong on this one. They did have the Bears as a 6 pt favorite over Houston and we only won on a last second bucket and free throw.

Poker... As we all know, I will be playing a bunch of poker this week. Yesterday was the start of the marathon and as per the case recently, things did not go that swimmingly. I played 915 hands for a hefty profit of $50.41. I made $199 on the 10/20 tables (110 hands), lost $12.09 on the 5/10 tables (575 hands) and lost $136.50 on the 3/6 tables (234 hands). I was literraly behind for about 900 of those hands; but made a come back to positive territory and called it quits... Did not want to Press my Luck... because most likely I would have hit a whammy.

I also played a little this morning and any guesses how things are going? Yep.. stuck $248. I've hit three sets and lost them all... of course KK got busted... I just need to keep telling myself to be paitent.

One of the sets I hit on the river... Give me your thoughts on how this hand should of / could of been played.

I am in the cutoff of a 5/10 game with 5 players with QQ and open raise... sLA-A type in SB calls and BB folds so it's heads up. A not so beautiful flop of 3cAdKs comes and he SB checks and calls my bet. Turn comes 9d.. What is your play... SB checks..

I could.... check behind him fearing the A, K or flush draw
I could.... bet to see where I am at.. since he was SB, it would be hard to really put him on somehthing.

OK.. what did I do.. I checked... Sometimes you lose your guts after they have been torn apart the last few days...

Anyway, the worst best card came on the River... Qd... What is your play... SB bets out...

I could.. call and hope my set holds up
I could.. fold knowing that I could be beat
I could.. raise... never fear the monster... or runner, runner (lol)

OK.. what did I do.. I raised... he 3 bet and like a big dummy I capped it and he showed JTo for the rivered gut shot... Wow, I just realized, he hit his gut shot and I received the gut shot.. and let me tell you.. it takes your breath away. Maybe that is why they call it a gut shot.

I think probably the right play is to go ahead and bet the turn and fold to a raise... Any thoughts??

I will play some more later and hopefully make a comeback


Cheapskate said...

If you would have bet the turn, he most definitely would have called it (instead of raising) and you wouldn't know much more than you already did. He felt like chasing the gutshot and got lucky. You can't really put him on that hand, or a flush draw for that matter. I would have guessed a K or A. I think you did about as well as you could have, considering he was committed to seeing the river.

pokerpeaker said...

Im calling March my suckout month.
Brutal, brutal beats all March.
So start winning again, Will, so I will too.

Sean said...

Most of the time I would have checked the turn in that spot, with the intention of calling a river bet some of the time (since you've essentially induced a bluff). There are very few draws on the board and he's likely calling you down with an A or K or possibly an underpair.

An argument can be made for betting out and checking the river (folding to a raise or river bet). He probably wouldn't have chased the gutshot in this situation, but it is definitely one of those bets where you'll only get called by a better hand.

These types of hands I am happy if I can see the showdown for one big bet. I tend to mix up my play based on what I know about the player. For people who tend to fold I bet out trying to get a king or weak ace to fold, and for calling stations I'll check-call.

Personally, I think this is one of those situations where a read can really help EV. You have two good options for how to play the hand and a read with help maximize your win. That being said, a sLA-A rating doesn't help me much -- more important is whether he'll take a card off on the flop and fold the turn or not.

Michael said...

I would bet the turn with the intention of checking behind on the river for a free showdown with your 3rd pair. Your opponent has shown no strength up to that point, so he's only going to call a river bet with a hand that beats your QQ.

If check-raised on the turn, I'd probably dump it there on the turn unless your sLA-A opponent is the type that would semi-bluff check-raise thinking you were stealing with rags. Then you have to suck it up and call down. An sLA-A is capable of this, I would think.

On the river, I am just calling. That Queen of Diamonds is a death card because it completes two different draws. Raising is ok, if you can lay your hand down to a reraise.

Tough hand, Will.

HighOnPoker said...

Admittedly, limit is not my game. BUT, I think you should have bet the turn because you have a chance of scaring off a pair of Ks, and you are making it expensive for him to draw to the flush or straight. My guess is that he would've called you, and then you would've been in the same situation on the river. So I'm chalking this one up as a hand you really couldn't get away from anyway.

Anonymous said...

"I think you should have bet the turn because you have a chance of scaring off a pair of Ks"

In my experience.. there's no way your getting anyone off a pair of K's here in a head up pot... let's put it this way- if you KNEW he had a pair of K's, would you bet? the answer is probably no.. 90%+ will not lay down a pair K's in a head up pot here.. regardless of kicker.

I like the check on the turn.. you'll induce a lot of bluffs on the river... and save anextra bet when they have an A or a K, cause they aint foldin it

Veneno said...

Hey Will,

Congrats on your round 1 win in the HUC3.

Can't wait to see you in future battles.

Best of luck to ya!

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