Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Bet Sizing on the End

So I watched the 2nd Face the Ace. Truthfully, I think the show has some potential; but something has to change. Watching that guy "lose" 200K was pretty sad to see. I felt bad for him.

I also watched Inside Deal on Espn.com. They interviewed Chris Moneymaker. It was put together pretty good and it worth a watch.

Well, I guess tight passive can work sometimes.

My stats last night were:

16.6/8.5/1.13 over 584 hands
I won 20.19 bb/100
3 bet 3.8%
Flop Cbet only 39%
Hitting sets 16.7% didn't hurt.

In this hands, I have the nuts and I am getting bet into. How much do you raise? Would a shove really get called? This was a No Limit game as opposed to my usual Pot Limit.

Villain is 43/15/2.9 over 357 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/227695
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $241.15
UTG+1: $255.50
MP: $293.55
CO: $98.50
Hero (BTN): $121.40
SB: $134.80
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Js As
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.50, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $5.50

Flop: ($16.50) 3s Ts 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, UTG+1 calls $10

Turn: ($36.50) 4h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $23, UTG+1 calls $23

River: ($82.50) Qd (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero raises ??

Have a nice day!!!!


Klopzi said...

It looks like the Villain is either putting out a blocking bet or looking for you to raise. In either case, I'd say a shove looks to get called just as often as a min-raise or 2/3 pot raise.

Memphis MOJO said...

I don't think he will call a big bet.

It may sound dumb, but I would consider a min-raise to give him a chance to check-raise bluff. That's your best shot to get a big chuck of his money.

Anonymous said...

That looks like he is going for value, and thinks you'll fold a lot. I say shove on him and watch him call pretty often.

word verification (lol):

WillWonka said...

So Pot is 92.50 and I have $81. This is a classic blocking type bet so I don't think he calls a shove.

What did I do?

I raised to $40 and got insta called. He called with QsJd.

Would he have called a push. Probably. but hard to say.

Klopzi said...

Or the classic "bet small to induce the raise from a player who's floated me a lot in the past".

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I actually don't like your bet sizing from the beginning. Especially the turn, I think you need to be bumping it up even more like you're bluffing. On the river, I would raise it to about $40.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Oh wow. I swear, I didn't read your comment before I posted my "raise to $40" comment. Great minds. :)

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