Monday, August 24, 2009

Thanks for not stacking me and Hit my set, now what do I do?

I had a so so weekend pokerwise. Otherwise, it was on of my busiest weekends on record. Nothing real exciting, just constant stuff. Pokerwise, it was a winning weekend online so I can be thankful for that. A 4.99 bb/100 is always better than a negative bb/100.

This first hand idea is stolen from Bruechips Thanks for not Stacking Me, Bro! (Part xx). Brue, if I owe you and copyright royalties, let me know.

Villain in this hand is a 13/2/1.5 guy over 45 hands.

Absolute Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

CO: $57.15
BTN: $25.55
SB: $88.30
Hero (BB): $60.40
UTG: $19.40
UTG+1: $67.15
MP: $96.36

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Ac Qc
2 folds, MP raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) Kh 7s Qd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($7.75) 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $5.75, MP raises to $16, Hero calls $10.25

Final Pot: $39.75
Hero mucks Ac Qc
MP shows Kc Ks (Full house, kings full of queens)
MP wins $37.30
(Rake: $2.45)

I'm not positive; but I probably would have got it in; especially on the turn.

This next hand, I was a little confused on what to do after hitting my set.

Villain is a 27/15/2.5 guy over 74 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $51.25
BB: $50.25
UTG: $49.50
UTG+1: $39.80
MP: $10.50
CO: $9.25
BTN: $67.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Qh Qc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.75, BB raises to $9.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($21.25) Tc Qd Js (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($21.25) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($21.25) 7s (2 players)
Hero ??

OK. I hit my set. AK is obviously a huge part of villains range so I check and checks behind. Of course AK might check behind. So I check again and he checks again. OK, my set is probably good. How much do you bet? If you are betting? Is everybody betting here? Does anybody donk out on flop? If so, if he raises or pushes, am I forced to fold?

Have a nice day!!1


Klopzi said...

Again, from an SPR point of view, you need to stack off with your set in this spot. It's unlikely that your behind and, if you are, you have redraws to the boat.

The pot's huge, you have just over a pot-sized bet behind. Shove the flop or bet the flop/shove the turn.

noldmax said...

BB's range for a PF 4-bet has to be super tight, given his 2% PFR (albeit over a small sample). I think you can discount AK a little PF, since I would expect a bigger 4-bet (the small 4-bets usually spell AA/KK only). Once he checks turn, AK is almost impossible. At this point, I think you HAVE to bet the turn for value, since KK is almost never folding, given the straight outs, and a lot of people wouldn't fold AA quite yet either.

On the river, once again, you have to bet. If we agree that villains range is pretty much only AA/KK, then there are no possible flushes in his range, and you can value bet freely. Make it close to pot-sized and expect a call almost every time.

WillWonka said...

Klopzi.. I need to read pro NL one of these days as I really have no concept of SPR. One of these days I guess.

noldmax. Nice thought on 4 bet size. I was oop so that it why I didn't bet turn and I believe AK would have checked flop.

Anyway, I bet 15.50 on river and he insta called with Aces. Definitely lost value on this one.

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