Wednesday, August 19, 2009

winning Perspective and a couple of 200PL hands

OK, so I think I am having a pretty good month; but then I look at Poker Table Ratings and see that Durrrr won almost 2 Million dollars yesterday and the guy he was playing lost around 2.5 Million. I can't remember his name; but something like maturnas. Yep, that puts things in perspective a bit.

Like I have mentioned before, I am play a little 200PL as they are available. They aren't going very often; but when they I do, I am playing. This first hand I misclicked and open limped from the cutoff (Yikes!!! can you say fish?). Anyway, a solid regular raises from sb. Here's the hand.

BTW, his stats are 22/13/2.9 over 3.6K hands.
He squeezes (even this isn't a squeeze situation) 3% and CBets 77%
There is a stat called Fold CB to Raise which is 47%. Is this him folding to a raise after he cbets?

Hand #1
Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $143.00
MP1: $353.60
MP2: $171.50
Hero (CO): $372.20
BTN: $309.10
SB: $200.00
BB: $209.15
UTG: $408.00
UTG+1: $205.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with 6s 6h
5 folds, Hero calls $2, BTN calls $2, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($32.00) 9s Td 9c (3 players)
SB bets $21, Hero calls $21, BTN folds

Turn: ($74.00) Kh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($74.00) Js (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

I'm ok with the preflop call. Flop is up for discussion? Do I bet here on the river?

Hand #2

This hand played somewhat standardly if it were lower limits; but give me your thoughts.

Villain stats are 26/7/2.5 over 42 hands.
Goes to showdown 42% over this small sample and wins 60% at showdown

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $158.20
UTG+2: $163.00
MP1: $197.20
Hero (MP2): $200.00
CO: $52.10
BTN: $181.80
SB: $188.20
BB: $500.70
UTG: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP2 with Qh Qs
UTG raises to $7, UTG+1 calls $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $31, 4 folds, UTG calls $24, UTG+1 calls $24

Flop: ($96.00) 2d 5h 7c (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $60, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $60

Turn: ($216.00) 9h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $67.20 all in, Hero ???

It seems like our 3 choices are (not necessarily in any order):

A) Set
B) Bluff
C) Smaller Pair

I didn't put AA or KK on here as I was thinking during the hand that most likely (especially at the higher limits than I usually play), that anybody would play aces or kings this way.
Anyway, pot is pretty big, do you have to call?

Have a nice day!!!


Anonymous said...

I like a check on the river in the first hand. If you bet, it is a bluff, and why turn your hand into a bluff when all the str8 draws now have at least a higher pair, and if he had a pair on the flop, your dead too.

Hand 2: Call, it's too small of a bet to fold to, there is a good chance your hand is best.

Klopzi said...

Hand 1: River check is best. You've got showdown equity and a bet won't make any K or J fold here.

Hand 2: Call. SPR is too low to consider folding post-flop, especially in the absence of an ace or king on the board. Folding in this spot would be pretty brutal.

spritpot said...

Hand 1: I disagree that you have really any showdown equity. You would make 88-66 fold with a bet of almost any size I think. I don't know how often he'd check AJ type hands on this river...probably pretty often. But if you bet like $35, representing something like KQ/KJ, you only need to get a fold less than 1/3 of the time to make your play profitable...88-66 is 18 hand combos...I don't think there are 36 hand combos that check/call the river after raising preflop and checking turn. I don't really like calling the flop though. Either you're beat already or you will be soon, and you have two outs to improve.

Hand 2: Gotta call. He's got JJ/TT/88/66 at least some of the time.


spritpot said...

Edit: for some reason I thought you had 55 when I was writing my comments...with 66 that's fewer hands that you can bluff...I'm not totally sure he'd call a decent sized bet with AJ though. Not a great looking board...

WillWonka said...

Hand #1. I think the float on the flop is ok for a guy that CBets 77% and is known squeezer. I wonder what a 4bet would have done on the flop. I kind of advertised that my hand was a pair.

He ended up having ATo

Hand #2. No real surprise that he had JJ. I was afraid of TT a bit when that T came on the river. I really wasn't afraid of AA or KK.

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