Well, Well. A rather inauspicious start to my Monthly Poker League. I'm not really sure what that means; but I used to always hear Al Michaels say it on Monday Night Football and it was never a good thing for the team that he was talking about. Of of 36 Players, I finished 25th for the 2nd straight time. Last night, I did the old fold when I should be calling and calling when I should be folding. That never bodes well for your results.
I did play with Mike Eise last night. He is the guy from the league who won a bracelet in Vegas this year. At the end it was losing another big coin toss that did me in. I only had KT; but I was against Mike Eise's poket 8s and somebody elses mid pocket pair. Mike, being the expert player that he was flopped a set. I picked up a straight draw on the turn; but Mike rivered quads to send me home.
Anyway, here is a quick aces hand. What to do on river?
Villain is a fishy 73/3/0.9 over 73 hands.
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/246058
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
MP2: $45.45
CO: $39.70
BTN: $7.25
Hero (SB): $59.30
BB: $15.60
UTG: $135.05
UTG+1: $50.00
MP1: $65.65
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 requests TIME, 3 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.50) 4s 6d 3h (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4
Turn: ($12.50) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO calls $10
River: ($32.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero ???
I don't think I'm ever folding against this guy; but do I go the check/call route for a possible cheap showdown or bet out route for thin value?
Have a nice day
Why all the shootings?
5 years ago
8 comments:
I'd go for the bet/fold line. Bet $10, fold to a raise. He'll call with worse but won't raise without a real hand. Since he's generally passive, you can be sure that you're beat if he raises.
That being said, you don't want to let Villain check-down a worse hand.
I had the same spot last night against a similar opponent. I checked OOP and Villain checked behind with a worse hand that would have called a small value bet.
There's a lot of value in betting here. I'd go for a $15 bet. While a raise from the villain would suck, I think you could find a fold.
I like bet-fold too. His most likely holding is an overpair...if he had a set, he would most likely have raised earlier to get more money into the pot. So the only hands you should be worrying about here are 55 and 77. I probably bet $15 or so and fold to a raise.
I can't bet fold can I? as Villain only has around $23 behind. I think I can check/fold; but would hate to do this with this opponent.
You're right, wonka...I was looking at your stack size, not his. So you can't really bet-fold.
Bet-call may be the best line. $15 still seems about right.
Why only $15? You think he's that much more likely to call 15 than 23? I just shove.
I shoved and he called with 77 and rivered me. Dang!!!
A shove is good too.
The reason I thought a $15 river bet might be a tiny bit better is because all-in bets look so much stronger against fishy players than halfpot value bets.
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