Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Cowboys and a quick hand with overpair

OK, so the Cowboys won last night. I gotta say that I'm not really liking what I am seeing. Felix gets hurt... again. MBIII should be fine. Passing game (except to Witten) seems off. Timing in general seems off. They finally got a couple of interceptions; but who doesn't get interceptions from Jake Delhomme. Although, I have to say that they weren't really all his fault yesterday. I'll take the win and look forward to playing the "undefeated" Broncos.

Work continues to kick my butt so I haven't had a lot of time to post. Here is a quick hand.

Villain is a 56/10/4.6 over 40 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/303702
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $100.50
Hero (BTN): $125.45
SB: $60.65
BB: $104.55
UTG: $105.60
UTG+1: $30.60
MP1: $71.05
MP2: $305.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Ad Ah
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 5d Kc 3c (2 players)
MP2 bets $4, Hero raises to $13.25, MP2 calls $9.25

Turn: ($37.00) 6s (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $23, MP2 calls $23

River: ($83.00) 4h (2 players)
MP2 bets $83, Hero ??

Seems like an easy call against this fishy type player; but is one pair good most of the time here? Can he possibly have a 2 or 7? I think that answer is yes given his states.

Have a nice day!!!


Henrik said...

A tough one. If he is a thinking player this suddenly eruption on river could be an attempt to fool you into believe he's trying to steal the pot when in fact he just hit a straight with his 77 or perhaps had a set already on the flop. But if he's in fact the fish you believe I believe he could be expected to take this line with a busted flush draw or maybe the KQ, KJ or KT-hand that he's now a little bit uncertain about.

Of course if he's a BIG fish with 77 or 44 as pocket cards this could just be a "hooray I hit, now I want to get it in". Sometimes the most clever and the most stupid choose the same line for different reasons - a fascinating aspect of poker, isn't it? :-)

The "go all the way with my one pair-hand"-questions dominates the strategy discussions in various poker forums. And for a good reason. They are tough spots for any player I think.

I think this is a typical example of a hand of this kind where the call is almost mandatory. You just cant give people credit for a set or an unlikely straight every time they take this line. I guess a good player will have what he represents often enough tough to make your profit quite marginal.

noldmax said...

I think I'm probably folding here. You really only beat a bluff, and if this guy is really a loose donk, he's more likely to check/call again with K-x than he is to turn it into a bluff. He may bluff some missed club draws, but I think he could show up here with a lot of straight and 2-pair hands, maybe even some sets - Ac2c/46/77/66/67/7c8c/7c9c/7cTc.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I think you have to fold here once he bets huge after the 4-straight falls on the river. Of course you will be giving up the best hand sometimes here, but calling off with just the aces seems like a bad play over the long term with all those connected cards on the board.

Memphis MOJO said...

I agree with the others - you really have to fold here. Hands like this are easier face to face, obviously.

Henrik said...

I'm still puzzled about Villains line in the hand though...

* He just calls pre - could indicate both a small pocket pair and suited connectors I guess
* He makes a small raise on the flop OOP and then calls the reraise.
* Then he checks the turn but calls a heros raise (betting higher here perhaps to discourage draws?)
* Then he suddenly erupts with this big raise on river when a card fells that could only have helped:
- pocket 4:s for a set (I know some people calls with almost anything but how likely is this??)
- a gut shot straight (A2 or 76)
- a runner runner straight
- 64 for two-pair

To me his betting doesn't tell a consistent story. Let's say he has a set with 3, 5 or 6. Why then this sudden pot sized bet? Why not a new check or at least a bet that he can expect you to re-raise since you already re-raised him twice and didn't took the opportunity of a free card on the turn when he checked. And the gutshots and runner runner straights..., well maybe if it also was a flush draw.

The only hand that makes sense is perhaps 64. But then we have to be sure that he never donks his missed draws and pair of kings.

The strange line still makes me feel that this is a call after all. I'm not saying it's a very profitable one. But I think it's better than folding. So what did you do Wonka? :-)

WillWonka said...

I was kind of surprised at all of the fold calls here. Against this type player.. granted I didn't have that many stats on him; but I got a pretty good idea... This type of player is almost never folding top pair.

Now, the river bet is a little distubing. While I wouldn't have been too surprised to see a 2 or a 7; I just wasn't buying it. I thought more like K6 or K4 for two pair (yes this just is PL 100.. you can see anything).

In the end, I just wasn't folding to this guy and called and he showed K9.

Although he was a bad player, this really isn't a bad bet and more likely a bad call on my part. It was stats/read dependent.

I'll take it.

It's all about the results ;-)

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