Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Fantasy Draft and Dealing with Blind Stealer

OK, one of the days I look forward to the most in the year. And, as usual, it kind of ends up disappointing. Yesterday was our Fantasy Football draft. We have a 12 team league and this is unbelievably our 15th year together. We don't really do a standard scoring system so positions like QB are a little more valuable. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR/TE, 1K and 1 DF. My goal when I set up this league was for each position to be equally valuable. In other words, the 1QB would equal the 2 RBs which would equal the 3 WRs. Kickers and Defense would be a little less valuable; but something you just can't ignore. Anyway, here is how it went. I had the #3 pick.

Adrian Peterson went #1 and then #2 went to Drew Brees. That left me with the MJD/Turner/Forte decision. I had even thought about LT in this spot. It was a pretty quick decision and I went with Forte. I think this season is one of those potential seasons. On the surface, I don't look real strong, but some of my guys have some pretty big upside.

Round 2
By now, 9 RBs, 5QBs, and 6WR had gone. I decided to go QB and homer with Tony Romo (I'm a big Cowboys Fan). Obviously, some question without the name WR corps at Dallas; but with Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, Jason Witten, Martellus Bennet and the RBs, there will be plenty of passing.

Round 3
After my pick, 2RB and 2WR went. I decided to take a gamble and go with Bryant Westbrook and hope that he can stay healthy. This is one of those picks that has some upside potential.

Round 4
By the time it got back to me, 21 RBs, 16 WR, and 8 QBs had gone. I needed a receiver and went with Dwayne Bowe. Again, upside potential

Round 5
Now we are getting down to the important picks that make or break a season. I decided to go another RB and took Thomas Jones as the 22nd RB.

Round 6
It's gets a little dicey from here. We do NOT have a TE position in our league. They are treated the same as WR and part of the 3 WR/TE that you need to start. I decided to take a TE here anyway and took Dallas Clark. Jason Witten had already been taken. I thought about Gates as well.

The Rest:
Round 7: Braylon Edwards as WR #26
Round 8: Fred Jackson as RB #33. Gamble here. Again upside if he impresses while Lynch is out.
Round 9: Derrick Mason as WR #36. This is somebody I planned on drafting from the beginning. Again, a gamble; but with some upsdie
Round 10: Nick Folk as #6 Kicker. Solid Kicker. Again, our point structure dictates taking K/DEF sooner than other leagues.
Round 11: Seahawks as #12 DF
Round 12: Patrick Crayton as #51 WR
Round 13: Kyle Orton as #22 QB. Solid Backup I feel.
Round 14: Matt Prater as #18 K
Round 15: Cardinals Defense as #17 Defense
Round 16: Sammy Morris as #53 RB. Our wildcard draft pick.


This hand deals with a habitual blind stealer.

Villain is a 19/13/1.8 over 171 hands
Steals from Button 47% and Cbets only 43%

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BTN: $100.00
SB: $99.00
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $87.50
MP: $112.00
CO: $112.85

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 5s 6c
3 folds, BTN raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

I'm calling here with any suited, connector or 2 broadway cards here against big blind stealer. I'm re-raising with an even wider range.

Flop: ($4.50) 3s 7h 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3, Hero calls $3

He doesn't fire a lot on flop; but I'm floating here alot.

Turn: ($10.50) 6s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN requests TIME, BTN checks

River: ($10.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8, Hero ??

Do I give up? Call? Raise? What kind of hand do we put Villain on?

Have a nice day!!!


noldmax said...

Villain's range is pretty wide here - that's the nature of defending blinds against a chronic stealer. River could be a bluff with almost any 2, or as light as a better 6.

I'm not sure what your plan was when you decided to float from OOP, but you have the bluff-catcher you need against an aggro stealer. I would probably call.

I think I generally prefer leading the river to control the bet size and to improve your image (and discourage further stealing). It would be a bet/fold of course.

Memphis MOJO said...

I like your FB team.
Rnd 1: You can't miss with any of these guys you considered. You'll like Forte.

Rnd 2: I learned a long time ago, it's best just to take who you want. Nothing is worse than having a bad team of players you hate. This way, you can enjoy it (Romo) even if you don't do as well as you hope.

Rnd 3: Westbrook = high risk/high reward, but great pick for 3rd round.

Rnd 6: Great pick for this late. With Marvin Harrison gone, he's in line for a big year.

Rnd 9: Terrific value for this late.

Bottom line: I don't know how the defense scoring works, but for the rest: You have good players with great depth. GL!

Big D said...

I think you need to fold. I wouldn't be confident with a pair of 6s and you dont have the best of kickers. What happened next?

WillWonka said...

I called and he showed JTo so win another one for the good guys.

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