Tuesday, September 22, 2009

What does he have?

A lot of the fun of poker even when multi tabling is putting your opponent on a range of hands. Does the line that he is taking make sense. Does the turn check raise make sense? Does the lead on the flop make sense or like in the hand below, does the River bet make sense?

The villain is a 39/3/1.3 guy over 40 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/293219
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $100.00
MP2: $105.10
CO: $87.40
BTN: $30.00
SB: $19.00
BB: $123.90
Hero (UTG): $255.50
UTG+1: $67.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 7c 6c
Hero raises to $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($12.00) 6h 7h 3d (3 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $7

Turn: ($26.00) Kc (2 players)
Hero bets $17, CO calls $17

River: ($60.00) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero ??

What hand or should I say what range of hands do you put him on and does this 1/2 pot bet mean perceived strength or weakness?

Have a nice day!!!


Klopzi said...

Villain is pretty loose.

I doubt he's calling the flop and turn with hands like 44 or A4 (except Ah4h). There's always the possibility of a slow-played 54 but again, that's one specific hand.

Your check on the river definitely opens up his betting range a little as he's likely to try a bet with a missed flush draw even though he's a somewhat passive player. He may even get bold with an overpair by making an ill-advised river bet when he'll only get called by a worse hand.

Half-pot bet is a little too big to be a value bet given that your river bet looks pretty weak/scared. I think his ranged is pretty polarized in this spot and there are many more hands that you beat with your two-pair.

In your spot, I don't mind the river check if you plan on calling a bet (which you should in this spot). However, I also like betting out and folding to a raise. Plus, a bet would still get called by a hand like A7 or 88-TT I think.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Your opponent has played this hand like a one-pair hand across the board me thinks. No way you can credibly put him on a 4 here for the inside straight after he called you preflop and then called behind on the flop and the turn. Of course you could always be up against a set, as many people at this level will call any standard pf raise with any pocket pair, and for that reason and of course the small possibility of a 4, I would not raise here at the end although I think you should be ahead here most of the time.

This hand played out exactly how I would expect him to play if he had AK, and even maybe KQ (flop call is a little suspect), or even a mid-high pair like 8s, 9s or Tens that thinks you are not likely to have hit that King on the turn. For that reason, and given that you did not bet out big on the river, there is no way in hike you can fold here. Gotta call and I bet you take it down about 75% of the time IRL.

Fun hand as usual, keep em coming.

noldmax said...

39 VPIP means his PF calling range is really wide. Could be any 2 hearts, a couple of straights draws (89/58), some pair+gutshot hands (56/46/34/35/57/44/55), and some slow-played monsters (33/45/66/77 - discounted since he doesn't raise flop or turn). I'd even throw in any 2 overcards with a K.

The half pot bet could be value or a bluff. The most likely value bets are 89/44/46/34/Ah4h, but he could also be value-betting K-x/56/35.

When you figure in the number of missed FD bluffs and consider the pot odds, it adds up to a call here.

pokerpeaker said...

My first thought was he has A-K or K-Q and called your flop bet because he thought you were cbing and that he had position. I might just call however just to be safe, but him having a 4 makes little sense.

Henrik said...

I agree completely with previous posters here. This call is profitable even if you in fact find yourself beaten half of the time, but I believe your odds are better than that.

To re-raise or even shove don't seems to be a good idea since this seems like a typical situation when you will only get called (or re-raised again) by hands that beat you , therby decreasing your long time profit in hands of this kind.

WillWonka said...

I did call and was a little surprised to see 55 for a rivered set.

I guess I need to rethink bet sizing.

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