Thursday, September 17, 2009

It's always better to be lucky than good, or is it?

Now, I don't mean to be lucky as far as sucking out on hands. That is never good to get your chips in behind. Even in cooler situations, it's not good.

Anyway, other than getting stacked on one of my first hands (are flopped straights ever good? Not last night when running queens came to fill the guy up.. at least I got my money in good).

Last night in 593 hands in about an hour, I ran 57.66 bb/100. I hit sets almost 18%. I had pocket aces 7 times (and won all of them). Kings once, queens 5 times, jacks 4 times and won all of them except for a queens hand where I folded post flop.

I had nine all in hands and won 6 of them. 7 of those times, I got my money in good. I lost twice when getting in good and I did win once on a 40/60 hand.

Another AQ hand OOP. When will I ever learn?

CO is 56/14/1.4 over 464 hands
BTN is 59/15/2.4 over 42 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

MP: $52.75
CO: $35.95
BTN: $115.25
SB: $239.90
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $113.65
UTG+1: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Ac Qc
3 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN raises to $4.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.75, CO calls $2.75

OK.. I'm not folding against these two. In fact, raising might be better? thoughts?

Flop: ($14.75) 9d Kc Kh (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

You gotta fishy players. Looks like air or monster at this point.

Turn: ($14.75) Jc (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4, BTN raises to $8, Hero calls $8, CO calls $4

Royal flush draw, I can't fold, can I?

River: ($38.75) 7c (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $38.75, Hero ???

So, I do think there is anyway I'm folding; but should I be calling or raising? If raising, how much? I have about $50 behind after the call and he has me covered.

Have a nice day!!!


Pokerdogg said...

Just call. On a paired and flush board, and based on the action on before the river, you are either facing trips or boat. Depending on fishy you think button is, you may be able to get him to call with trips, but there is also CO to think about. If both of them have trips (small possiblity), smooth call may get him to call as well if he is fishy.

noldmax said...

Although these guys are loose, their PFRs aren't outrageous, so you still have to give them some credit here. AQs becomes borderline in this spot against a 3-bet from OOP. So I wouldn't raise. If you're going to play this hand, you want both bad players involved, so call and hope the CO calls too (as it happened).

It would be fine to fold the turn against a bet and raise, since you could be drawing dead easily.

Now once you get to the river, and only BTN is firing, I think raising is marginal. The likely hands are JJ/99/AK/AA. There are 6 combos of JJ+99, 6 combos of AK, and 3 of AA. I probably just call, but if you think the PSB on the end smells more like AK, you could justify shoving.

Henrik said...

I have to dissent completely here :-)

When chasing a draw, we're chasing it with the goal of getting as much as possible of our stack into the middle if we hit it. The only exception is if the card that completes our draw seems likely to have helped our villain too. If we are fearing that we would still be behind no matter how we hit - chasing a straight on a board with a possibly made flush or a flush/straight on a paired board - we probably shouldn't call at all.

In this hand I would call because of the ridiculously small bets on the turn and see what happens. Any club I would assume that my nutflush is in fact the nuts and my only headache would be how to get as much as possible of my opponents stack into the middle. Why? Because there are so many hands that we are beating that could fit the betting pattern so far - especially when we take the loose nature of our opponents into account:

AA, QQ, TT, 88
T8 (completed a straight)
lower flush draws (could explain why he checked the flop but woke up again on the turn)

I would not be surprised to see a loose button bet out with all those hands. And remember that the flush was a runner-runner so if he has trips or a straight he's probably not much afraid of it.

Then we have some hands that we surely will loose to:
KJ, JJ, 99, 77

If we like we can add K9-K6 since we know our opponents are loose and many loose players also like those king-high hands. Since two of them beats us and two doesn't (but probably will call an allin) that doesn't effect the overall calculate.

You can also add hands like A9 and A7 or any low pair that villains liked to stick around with to see if they would hit something. The low bets on the turn doesn't really prove any quality at all in their hands. But I would expect at least one of them to show us a king

As for CO I think that he just sticks around with something like a gutshot straight draw or perhaps twopair. His presence in the hand will not affect my decision making in any substantial way.

My conclusion. Given the betting patterns and likely hands I believe that we are ahead more often than we are behind. I also expect at least one villain (possibly BTN) to call even an all-in from me so I'd shove here for value. Any other line is being afraid of monsters under the bed.

Henrik said...

amendment: The last part of my analysis: I called on the turn assuming I would have the best hand if I hit a club, unless the card could have helped my opponent too. The only hands that fits that description are K7 and 77. The small risk that one of them does NOT justify any "safe" line so just get all your money in!

WillWonka said...

Great comments. Keep it up.

In the end, I only called; but if I had paying closer attention which is sometimes hard when you are playing 13 tables I would have pushed and he most likely would have called with AK.

Klopzi said...

A little late to the party however...

Don't like the pre-flop call. Raise big or fold.

I also don't like the turn call. Why? Because of the exact situation on the river. Any time you find yourself having to guess at making the correct decision in a hand, you've made a mistake in the hand. The river call is difficult due to the errors made pre-flop and on the turn.

As played, it doesn't matter what you do on the river because you're being forced to guess: does Villain have the boat or not? Sure, he's a loose player but that doesn't matter much when facing a pot-sized bet on the river on a scary board.

Whether or not you guessed correctly only affects your short-term results. In the long run, I'd tackle the pre-flop and turn so that you don't need to face a similar situation in the future.

There's the other school of thought that says that you do your best learning when faced with difficult decisions. Maybe that's why my game has taken off...

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