Tuesday, September 08, 2009

I'm OK with Losing Value here and going with Feelings/Reads

Not such a fun holiday weekend as I had to work both Saturday and Monday. I'm not complaining as I knew about the busy times going in when I took this job. I'm still enjoying it... well as much as anybody can enjoy an office job.

My fantasy football draft is tonight. I have the #3 pick. I have a few options. We'll see how it goes.

Fortunately, I ran a little hot this weekend finishing up $350 while my EV adjusted number was $189. It does feel good to have good fortune every once in a while.

Even playing online and playing multiple tables (usually 10-15 tables), I still can go with reads. Now, most of them are stats reads; but it also accounts to how a player has been playing previously. I have two hands to show the illustrates this.

Hand #1

Villain berated me on this one and it is partly justified. I'm going to show the whole hand on this one. I just go with my reads sometimes. Am I losing value in the long run. Absolutely; but if I feel something is strange, I'll play it weak passively.

Villain is a solid 14/9/2.1 player over 2.3K hands.
3bets 3.6%

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/272680
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $223.80
Hero (MP2): $100.00
CO: $100.00
BTN: $110.15
SB: $156.00
BB: $51.90
UTG: $211.25
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $167.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ad Ks
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.00) Kh 9h 4c (2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero calls $15

Turn: ($55.00) Ac (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($55.00) 2h (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero calls $25

Final Pot: $105.00
Hero mucks Ad Ks
SB shows Ah As (three of a kind, Aces)
SB wins $102.00
(Rake: $3.00)

So, yes, probably should have gotten stacked there and losing overall value; but truthfully, I felt good after the hand and was able to move on whereas, I may have tilted a little bit if I had got stacked. I know if tilted is the right word; but certainly would have dwelled on it.

The next hand was again read dependent. This was a 1/2 game so I tend to give a little more credit... well sometimes. Thoughts?

Read #1: stats
Villain is 39/5/6.7 over 44 hands

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/272681
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $200.00
MP: $84.30
CO: $231.35
BTN: $62.00
Hero (SB): $215.60
BB: $83.70
UTG: $266.95

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with Td Kc
4 folds, BTN calls $2, Hero calls $1, BB checks

Read #2 limps from button

Flop: ($6.00) 4s Qh Th (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4, BB calls $4

Read #3 High AF so I expect bet when checked to.

Turn: ($18.00) 3d (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $16, Hero calls $16, BB folds

Read #4 bet sizing. Is he just trying to buy it?

River: ($50.00) 7c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $40 all in, Hero ??

Do I have to give up now? Even when getting over 2 to 1?

Have a nice day!!!


Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Holy cow, I'm the first commenter. Hasn't happened in a while.

The first hand, I personally love how you played it. First of all, you raise MP and the villain 3 bets with no other callers so generally, I would have to believe that his range is tighter there. You call and you flop K. He bets into you as he would with any range that he's 3 betting and you smooth call. What else are you gonna do? Seriously... what else would you do? Raising here is a bad play because you only get called, raised by better hands and fold out worse hands (QQ).

When the A comes on the turn, that's great but nothing has changed. If villain has QQ, he is hating this board and all you're gonna do by betting is folding out worse hands. If his hand range also includes a worse ace like AQ, that's great but this is not the spot to try to get value out of AQ IMO. Checking behind here I think is great because it could also potentially induce a bluff on the river. A blank river and he bets out. Again, same as the other streets, there's no reason for you to raise because worse hands (except AQ) will fold here and all the better hands will stack you.

Villain berating you is silly if he actually thinks through the hand to consider how else you could have played it.

2nd hand, that really sucks. I prefer a checkraise on that flop though. On the river, I think I would lean towards folding but I might make a hero call...

Memphis MOJO said...

Let us know how your draft goes. Mine is Saturday.

WillWonka said...

Hand #2 was a fairly easy call and the villian shoed 82o. He bluffed the whole way. It feels good when you get a read and stick with it and pays off.

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