Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Setless and Facing pressure from a Rock with one pair

Yesterday was one of those days. It's the last day of the month so you don't want ruin a good month. And then it happens. Your kings run into Aces, Your two pair runs into higher two pairs a couple of times. I didn't hit a set for the first 763 hands last night. All in all, I was able to battle back just to lose $36 which was actually .08 bb/100. I'm not sure how all that works playing the different levels.

Here is a hand from a strong winning player. I've been trying not to get too attached to my top pair hands. After all, they are just one pair; but it is sometimes hard to let them go.

Villain is 14/6/1.8 over 405 hands.
Key stat here is his AF is 3.8 on turn.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/260240
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $129.50
UTG: $58.25
UTG+1: $21.30
Hero (UTG+2): $109.30
MP1: $35.35
MP2: $252.95
CO: $274.85
BTN: $50.00
SB: $172.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with Ks As
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Qh 4d Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 2s (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $37, Hero ???

What kind of range are we putting him on? What's your action? Did my bet sizing induce anyting on turn?

Have a nice day!!!!


noldmax said...

Villain's range will be weighted towards 2-pair and better hands - AQ/A4/A2/44/35h.

If villain is strong and aggressive, we can also add in some semi-bluff combo-draw hands like KJh/KTh/JTh/56h, and also some air.

But in general, you're in bad shape b/c he will almost never be raising for value with something that you can beat. I would fold.

OOP here against an aggressive opponent, I prefer a bet-check-bet line to avoid spots like this one.

spritpot said...

Vs. a 14/6 player (who somehow is also a strong winning player?) this is an easy fold. The turn AF stat means nothing. First, you have only 405 hands, so you probably have something like 11 turn actions, so he's bet or raised 9 times, called 2 times. Aggregating that statistic over a bunch of different boards, and using the data from a small sample to apply to this situation is folly. If you want to use any AF, I guess use the 1.8 (unless that's 3b%?), but still I'd just as soon ignore it entirely. I doubt he has A2s or 53s very often since he called an EP raise, but he can have AQ QQ and 44 plenty. You can maybe pray to chop with AK, although I wouldn't expect him to play AK this way. The only conceivable hands that you beat are KhJh and JhTh...that's two hands. And you're not miles ahead of them anyway. Whereas vs AQ QQ and 44 you're drawing dead or very close to it.

I don't think I'd even bet the turn, precisely because you can't stand a raise and you're not going to get called by worse very often. You also need to protect your turn checks with something, since in general when you're checking this turn you're just totally giving up. So I think I'd check/probably call the turn, and then check/fold the river, especially if it's a heart.


WillWonka said...

I folded.

I guess check calling the turn is an option.

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