Wednesday, July 27, 2005

SNG - Day 22

In the comments yesterday, I posed the question whether I was running bad this month or just over my head. Thanks for the honest answer G. It's a good question and it deserves some analysis. First off, let's supply our baseline for our analysis. For this, I will use my ITD results in the $50 prior to July. Here they are:

Games: 140
1sts: 20 (14.29%)
2nds: 23 (16.43%)
3rds: 11 (7.86%)
4ths: 10 (7.14%)
Net Profit: $1,850
In the Money%: 38.57%
ROI: 24.03%

OK then. What constitutes a winning SNG player. I think the consensus would be to be in the money around 40-45% of the time with an ROI of 25-30%. So going into this thing, I was a little under this goal; but still making money so I was OK with it knowing that I needed to improve. I would also say a goal would be to have more 2nds than 1sts and more 3rds than 4ths (corrected). OK, again, I was a little behind the curve on the heads up and barely above on bubble play.

OK, let's fast forward to present time. First, let's look at the updated numbers. I have added a column that shows Inception to Date stats:

July SNG Breakdown
July 26
5 - 7
8 - 10

  1. 9th - JTs lost to A3s I was shortstacked and had 2 big bets in front of me. I called hoping to more than triple up. I did get my flush draw on the flop... but didn't hit.
  2. 5th - 66 lost to K2.. all in on flop.. lost on turn when he tripped up his deuces
  3. 2nd - 96 lost to K9 on river. Had 2 pair; but board paired on river to give him higher 2 pair
  4. 9th - AQ lost to JJ.. no surprise there..
  5. 4th - K2s lost to AJ.. you have to steal blinds when it gets down to nitty gritty. I just picked a bad spot.
  6. 1st - AA beat K8. This may be the longest SNG I have ever played on Party. 1 hour and 8 minutes. This was up and down from the beginning.

I wasn't really into them last night so I just played 2 sets. Another question was brought whether you can effectively play 4 tables at a time (or even 3). My simple answer (and there is more to it) is that once you are used to it, it really isn't a problem. Anything that you miss can be immediately looked up in the hand histories directly from the PP client. I have my resolution so that I can see most of all the tables at all times.. 1600x1400 is just a little too small for me (even with a 21" monitor) so I play at 1280x1024. Anything that you do lose on ROI due to multi-tabling could possibly be made up with volume. But realistically, it is not too hard to follow the action. In fact, I still find myself surfing the web or doing other things (especially during the beginning stages). I do need to quit doing that.

Now back to the analysis. July has been bad on all fronts. We've defined the goals for SNGs. How do you define a "bad run". This I don't know. I think this is where you have to look past the results and go to the decisions that you make and look at some of the beats that you are getting (and how many of them you are getting). Looking back, in my humble opinion, I think I am getting an inordinate amount of lousy beats. This may be the glass half full persona coming out. Anyway, I'm not completely sure what I have discovered with this analysis. I didn't see anything that overly concerned me looking at the big picture. It's kind of mind boggling to think that I have thrown almost 15K into tournaments this month. I'm on the plus side; but there is a lot and I mean a lot of work to do to get better. I do look forward to playing other games in August. I'm actually kind of missing the ring play.


GaryC said...

The definition of "bad run" is the hard part. I'm as stubbborn as anyone and cannot make myself quit when I'm trying to get "even."

I didn't mean to suggest that you couldn't "beat" these games. Obviously, you are in the black for the month, so you are beating the games. For all I know, it could be just a bad run of cards.

We all know about variance and some of that obviously has something to do with your results. I commend you for sticking with this and fully expect a big recap of your winnings when you finish. No doubt you will finish ahead and be a better SNG player for having done it.

Good luck,


WillWonka said...

Thanks.. I knew what you meant and didn't take it negatively. I appreciate the comments. Anything that makes me look at my results more closely is a positive.

HighOnPoker said...

What fortitude. Good luck, man. I was watching some televised poker recently, and they were discussing Layne Flack's run of bad luck that lasted months or years. Being poker players naturally makes us slaves to variance. Its a harsh reality, especially since its easier to recall a bad beat than when you win as a clear favorite. From what I've seen from your blog, you shouldn't blame yourself as much as luck. Now, if I could only take my own advice, I'd have some more PG posts. Hell, I'd settle for PG-13 lately.

Mourn said...

IMO, Your goals for a winning SnG player, especially at the $50 level and above are way too high.

You obviously had an excellent run prior to July, but it has given you an unreasonable expectation. Some of what you've experienced this month is just bringing you back to reality.

Poke around 2+2 a little and you'll see more reasonable expectations expressed. I would say that a 20% ROI in the $50's is exceptional and there are very, very few people hitting that number over a really big sample size.

If there is one thing I've learned with SnGs, it's that you cannot get over-confident based on a small sample size, and 140 is pretty small. I was destroying the $20s over my first 200 to the tune of about 30% ROI, and I am nowhere near that now and I have been disappointed in my results. I still think I can do better, and you probably can as well, but I wouldn't throw up your hands if you never see 20% again. Winning is winning after all, don't forget that.

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